OST vs TOR
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, July 22, 2022 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tomasz Gapiński1 2 3 1 07+1
- 10Oliver Berntzon2 3 0 1 28+1
- 11Tim Sörensen0 0 11
- 12Grzegorz Walasek2 3 1 06+2
- 13Chris Holder3 3 3 0 3 214
- 14Kacper Grzelak0 00
- 15Jakub Krawczyk2 0 2 37
- 16Jakub Poczta00
- 1Jack Holder2 3 2 2 3 113+1
- 2Paweł Przedpełski0 1 2 1 2 17+2
- 3Patryk Dudek3 2 1 2 3 314+2
- 5Robert Lambert1 1 1 3 2 08+2
- 6Krzysztof Lewandowski3 1 04
- 7Denis Zieliński1 01
- 8Mateusz Affelt00
Heat by heat
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Jack Holder · TOR2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Tim Sörensen · OST0
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Denis Zieliński · TOR1
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Patryk Dudek · TOR2
- Robert Lambert · TOR1*
- Tim Sörensen · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Jack Holder · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Denis Zieliński · TOR0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Patryk Dudek · TOR1*
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Jack Holder · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Patryk Dudek · TOR2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Tim Sörensen · OST1
- Mateusz Affelt · TOR0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Chris Holder · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Robert Lambert · TOR0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 → 28 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h W
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 41 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| OST | TOR | OST | TOR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -6 | 27 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -4 | 33 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | 0 | 56 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -2 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Holder | 6 | 9.1 | 14 | +4.9 |
| Jack Holder | 6 | 9.4 | 13 | +3.6 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 4 | 3.5 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 4 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 3 | 3.8 | 4 | +0.2 |
| Patryk Dudek | 6 | 13.8 | 14 | +0.2 |
| Denis Zieliński | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Jakub Poczta | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Mateusz Affelt | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Tim Sörensen | 3 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 6 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| Robert Lambert | 6 | 13.5 | 8 | -5.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.