GRU vs LUB

PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, July 15, 2022 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz

Results

GRU 35 : 55 LUB

GRU

9Przemysław Pawlicki0 2 1 3 2 08+1
10Krzysztof Kasprzak2 2 W 0 1 27
11Frederik Jakobsen1 2 0 1 2 28+1
14Wiktor Rafalski0 00
15Kacper Pludra1 1 1 03+2
16Norbert Krakowiak1 2 1 2 3 09+1

LUB

1Mikkel Michelsen3 3 2 3 2 316
2Maksym Drabik0 0 3 1 3 18
3Jarosław Hampel2 3 1 3 0 110+1
6Wiktor Lampart3 0 03
7Mateusz Cierniak2 0 13+1
8Dominik Kubera3 3 2 3 1 315+1

Heat by heat

Heat 165.55 s1:5

Heat 266.82 s1:5

Heat 365.46 s3:3

Heat 466.72 s3:3

Heat 566.60 s2:4

Heat 666.21 s3:3

Heat 766.97 s3:3

Heat 866.71 s1:5

Heat 967.13 s3:3

Heat 1066.50 s3:3

Heat 1166.43 s2:4

Heat 1266.77 s2:4

Heat 1366.37 s4:2

Heat 1466.47 s2:4

Heat 1565.95 s2:4

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 19 → 13 °C; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Wind: 5 km/h W; gusts up to 22 km/h; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 56 %; Regional estimate (Meteostat)

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	8	16	−8	+8
5–7	8	10	−2	+2
8–10	7	11	−4	+4
11–13	8	10	−2	+2
14–15	4	8	−4	+4
	GRU	LUB	GRU	LUB

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead GRU

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	-4	45 %
2	-8	11 %
3	-8	13 %
4	-8	15 %
5	-10	9 %
6	-10	8 %
7	-10	5 %
8	-14	0 %
9	-14	3 %
10	-14	0 %
11	-16	1 %
12	-18	0 %
13	-16	0 %
14	-18	0 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Mikkel Michelsen	6	12.8	16	+3.2
Dominik Kubera	6	12.9	15	+2.1
Przemysław Pawlicki	6	6.0	8	+2.0
Norbert Krakowiak	6	7.5	9	+1.5
Wiktor Lampart	3	3.2	3	-0.2
Kacper Pludra	4	3.3	3	-0.3
Frederik Jakobsen	6	8.6	8	-0.6
Mateusz Cierniak	3	4.0	3	-1.0
Wiktor Rafalski	2	1.5	0	-1.5
Jarosław Hampel	6	11.5	10	-1.5
Maksym Drabik	6	9.8	8	-1.8
Krzysztof Kasprzak	6	8.9	7	-1.9

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 67.1365.46 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 26.0:34.0 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −3.20 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source