LUB vs TOR

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 3, 2022 · Best Auto Arena, Lublin

Results

LUB 55 : 35 TOR

LUB

9Jarosław Hampel3 2 3 2 313+1
11Maksym Drabik0 3 0 2 3 210
13Mikkel Michelsen0 3 3 1 310+1
14Wiktor Lampart3 2 0 05+1
15Mateusz Cierniak2 2 1 05+2
16Dominik Kubera3 1 3 2 1 212+1

TOR

1Paweł Przedpełski1 1 1 1 1 38+2
2Patryk Dudek2 0 D 3 2 310
3Robert Lambert2 3 2 2 2 112
4Jack Holder1 1 1 0 0 14+1
6Krzysztof Lewandowski1 01
7Denis Zieliński0 00
8Mateusz Affelt0 00

Heat by heat

Heat 166.87 s3:3

Heat 267.28 s5:1

Heat 366.65 s3:3

Heat 466.77 s5:1

Heat 566.48 s2:4

Heat 666.65 s5:1

Heat 766.43 s4:2

Heat 866.86 s3:3

Heat 966.32 s5:1

Heat 1066.25 s3:3

Heat 1166.78 s5:1

Heat 1265.95 s4:2

Heat 1366.30 s4:2

Heat 1466.64 s2:4

Heat 1565.56 s2:4

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Cloudy → Partly cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 21 → 22 °C; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Wind: 5 km/h N; gusts up to 11 km/h; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 71 %; Measured · Lublin Radawiec, 12 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	16	8	+8	−8
5–7	11	7	+4	−4
8–10	11	7	+4	−4
11–13	13	5	+8	−8
14–15	4	8	−4	+4
	LUB	TOR	LUB	TOR

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead LUB

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	+4	86 %
3	+4	82 %
4	+8	93 %
5	+6	90 %
6	+10	97 %
7	+12	99 %
8	+12	98 %
9	+16	100 %
10	+16	100 %
11	+20	100 %
12	+22	100 %
13	+24	100 %
14	+22	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Jarosław Hampel	5	8.2	13	+4.8
Maksym Drabik	6	8.3	10	+1.7
Mateusz Cierniak	4	4.0	5	+1.0
Paweł Przedpełski	6	7.0	8	+1.0
Wiktor Lampart	4	4.0	5	+1.0
Mikkel Michelsen	5	9.9	10	+0.1
Robert Lambert	6	12.0	12	-0.0
Dominik Kubera	6	12.1	12	-0.1
Denis Zieliński	2	0.8	0	-0.8
Mateusz Affelt	2	1.0	0	-1.0
Krzysztof Lewandowski	2	2.2	1	-1.2
Patryk Dudek	6	13.2	10	-3.2
Jack Holder	6	7.3	4	-3.3

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 67.2865.56 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 28.3:39.0 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −2.20 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source