TOR vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, June 24, 2022 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Jack Holder2 0 3 1 06
- 10Robert Lambert2 2 3 3 2 012+3
- 11Paweł Przedpełski0 2 1 1 2 28+2
- 13Patryk Dudek3 3 3 3 3 318
- 14Denis Zieliński2 3 05+1
- 15Krzysztof Lewandowski3 1 3 07
- 1Krzysztof Kasprzak3 2 2 2 D 211
- 2Emil Breum Ankersen1 0 0 12
- 3Frederik Jakobsen1 2 2 2 1 19+2
- 4Przemysław Pawlicki1 3 1 1 1 310+2
- 6Kacper Pludra1 0 W 01
- 7Wiktor Rafalski0 00
- 8Norbert KrakowiakD 11
Heat by heat
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Jack Holder · TOR2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR3
- Denis Zieliński · TOR2*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2*
- Emil Breum Ankersen · GRU1
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRUD
- Denis Zieliński · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Jack Holder · TOR0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1
- Emil Breum Ankersen · GRU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1*
- Denis Zieliński · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Emil Breum Ankersen · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1*
- Jack Holder · TOR0
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2*
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Wiktor Rafalski · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRUD
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Emil Breum Ankersen · GRU1
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Patryk Dudek · TOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1*
- Robert Lambert · TOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 26 → 23 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 13 km/h E
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 47 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| TOR | GRU | TOR | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +12 | 99 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +16 | 100 % |
| 11 | +16 | 100 % |
| 12 | +20 | 100 % |
| 13 | +24 | 100 % |
| 14 | +22 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patryk Dudek | 6 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 1.3 | 5 | +3.7 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 4 | 3.8 | 7 | +3.2 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 6 | 8.2 | 11 | +2.8 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 6 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 7.3 | 6 | -1.3 |
| Emil Breum Ankersen | 4 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Robert Lambert | 6 | 13.6 | 12 | -1.6 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 2 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.0 |
| Wiktor Rafalski | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 6 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.