OST vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 10, 2022 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Oliver BerntzonW 1 1 02
- 10Tomasz Gapiński2 3 0 1 06+1
- 11Grzegorz Walasek1 1 13+2
- 12Matias Nielsen0 2 2 2 17
- 13Chris Holder3 1 3 3 2 214
- 14Jakub KrawczykW 1 01+1
- 15Sebastian Szostak2 0 02
- 16Tim Sörensen00
- 1Nicki Pedersen3 2 3 1 3 315+1
- 2Krzysztof Kasprzak1 3 2 2 210+3
- 3Frederik Jakobsen2 0 13+2
- 4Przemysław Pawlicki3 3 2 3 3 115
- 6Kacper Pludra3 0 03
- 7Kacper Łobodziński1 0 12+1
- 8Norbert Krakowiak2 2 0 37
Heat by heat
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Kacper Pludra · GRU3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OSTW
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU1*
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2*
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Tim Sörensen · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 7 → 4 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 22 km/h W
- gusts up to 41 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.9 mm
- Possible showers: a second model has the day dry
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.3 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 63 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| OST | GRU | OST | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -6 | 27 % |
| 3 | -6 | 32 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -10 | 8 % |
| 7 | -8 | 13 % |
| 8 | -8 | 12 % |
| 9 | -12 | 1 % |
| 10 | -12 | 0 % |
| 11 | -14 | 2 % |
| 12 | -14 | 4 % |
| 13 | -14 | 0 % |
| 14 | -18 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 11.6 | 15 | +3.4 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 4.1 | 7 | +2.9 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Chris Holder | 6 | 11.8 | 14 | +2.2 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 4 | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 6 | 12.9 | 15 | +2.1 |
| Kacper Pludra | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Tim Sörensen | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 3 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 3 | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 8.9 | 6 | -2.9 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 7.1 | 2 | -5.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.