GRU vs ZIE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 13, 2021 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki3 2 D 1 39+1
- 11Paweł Miesiąc2 1 W 2 05+1
- 12Kenneth Bjerre1 3 2 2 08
- 13Nicki Pedersen3 3 2 3 314
- 14Denis Zieliński1 1 02
- 15Mateusz Bartkowiak2 0 13
- 16Norbert Krakowiak2 1 1 D4+1
- 1Mateusz Tonder0 00
- 2Piotr Protasiewicz0 2 3 3 210
- 3Max Fricke1 0 1 1 14+1
- 4Matej Zagar3 2 3 2 3 114+2
- 5Patryk Dudek2 1 3 3 2 213+1
- 6Fabian Ragus3 W 0 14
- 7Nile TufftW0
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU2*
- Max Fricke · ZIE1
- Mateusz Tonder · ZIE0
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU2
- Denis Zieliński · GRU1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE0
- Matej Zagar · ZIE3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Denis Zieliński · GRU1
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU1
- Max Fricke · ZIE0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE2
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1*
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Matej Zagar · ZIE3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Max Fricke · ZIE1
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRUD
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU2
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE1
- Matej Zagar · ZIE3
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1*
- Mateusz Tonder · ZIE0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Max Fricke · ZIE1
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRUD
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE2
- Max Fricke · ZIE1*
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Matej Zagar · ZIE1*
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 14 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 13 km/h NW
- gusts up to 42 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 66 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 5 | 13 | −8 | +8 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| GRU | ZIE | GRU | ZIE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matej Zagar | 6 | 10.3 | 14 | +3.7 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 5 | 7.9 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 5 | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Fabian Ragus | 4 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Patryk Dudek | 6 | 12.9 | 13 | +0.1 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | +0.1 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 4 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Mateusz Tonder | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Paweł Miesiąc | 5 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Nile Tufft | 2 | 2.8 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | -5.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.