TOR vs CZE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 16, 2021 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Paweł Przedpełski2 2 2 1 1 08+2
- 10Jack Holder3 3 1 3 3 215+1
- 11Adrian Miedziński1 3 2 W 06+1
- 13Chris Holder1 1 13
- 14Karol Żupiński0 0 00
- 15Krzysztof Lewandowski2 0 13
- 16Robert Lambert2 2 0 26+1
- 1Leon Madsen3 3 3 0 312
- 2Jonas Jeppesen3 2 0 2 18+2
- 3Bartosz Smektała0 1 3 0 26
- 4Kacper Woryna1 01+1
- 5Fredrik LindgrenW 1 1 2 15+1
- 6Jakub Miśkowiak3 2 2 3 313+1
- 7Bartłomiej Kowalski1 01
- 8Mateusz Świdnicki33
Heat by heat
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1*
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE3
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR2
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · CZE1
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE2
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1*
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2*
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE1
- Kacper Woryna · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE2*
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Bartłomiej Kowalski · CZE0
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE3
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE2*
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Jack Holder · TOR1*
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Robert Lambert · TOR0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1*
- Leon Madsen · CZE0
- Mateusz Świdnicki · CZE3
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE2*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE2
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1*
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Jack Holder · TOR2
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h SW
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 61 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| TOR | CZE | TOR | CZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -6 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 5 | 6.9 | 13 | +6.1 |
| Jack Holder | 6 | 11.6 | 15 | +3.4 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 1 | 0.9 | 3 | +2.1 |
| Jonas Jeppesen | 5 | 6.2 | 8 | +1.8 |
| Leon Madsen | 5 | 10.7 | 12 | +1.3 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 5 | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | +0.0 |
| Bartłomiej Kowalski | 2 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Kacper Woryna | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Robert Lambert | 4 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| Bartosz Smektała | 5 | 8.0 | 6 | -2.0 |
| Karol Żupiński | 3 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Chris Holder | 3 | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 5 | 10.4 | 5 | -5.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.