GRU vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Saturday, May 15, 2021 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki2 2 3 1 210
- 10Roman Lakhbaum11
- 11Paweł Miesiąc0 2 T 2 15+2
- 12Kenneth Bjerre1 3 3 3 212
- 13Nicki Pedersen3 3 3 T 110
- 14Denis Zieliński0 0 00
- 15Mateusz Bartkowiak3 1 0 1 05+1
- 16Norbert Krakowiak1 0 12+1
- 1Grigorij Laguta3 W 2 2 310
- 2Krzysztof Buczkowski2 2 1 3 U8+1
- 3Jarosław Hampel1 1 2 3 07
- 5Mikkel Michelsen0 3 2 2 310+1
- 6Wiktor Lampart2 2 15+2
- 7Mateusz Cierniak1 0 01+1
- 8Dominik Kubera3 0 1 04+1
Heat by heat
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU0
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1*
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUB2
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB0
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2*
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU1
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU2*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUB2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1*
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUB1*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUB3
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU1*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB3
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU2
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUBU
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 → 13 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 10 km/h SE
- gusts up to 16 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 86 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| GRU | LUB | GRU | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Bjerre | 5 | 6.6 | 12 | +5.4 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 5 | 3.4 | 5 | +1.6 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 4 | 9.3 | 10 | +0.7 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 5 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 3 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Paweł Miesiąc | 4 | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 |
| Roman Lakhbaum | 1 | 1.2 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Grigorij Laguta | 5 | 10.8 | 10 | -0.8 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 3 | 3.1 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 1.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Dominik Kubera | 4 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 5 | 10.6 | 7 | -3.6 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 3 | 4.7 | 1 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.