ZIE vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, April 30, 2021 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Matej Zagar2 2 2 2 3 112+1
- 10Piotr Protasiewicz2 0 13
- 11Max Fricke3 2 1 1 1 210+2
- 12Damian Pawliczak1 1 13+2
- 13Patryk Dudek3 2 2 2 3 315
- 14Fabian Ragus0 0 00
- 15Jakub Osyczka1 0 01
- 1Grigorij LagutaD 3 3 3 211
- 2Krzysztof Buczkowski2 13
- 3Jarosław Hampel1 3 3 2 09
- 5Mikkel MichelsenD 3 D D3
- 6Wiktor Lampart2 1 3 2 T8+2
- 7Mateusz Cierniak3 1 0 3 18
- 8Dominik Kubera3 0 1 04
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · ZIE3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2*
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Grigorij Laguta · LUBD
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2*
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE1
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUB2
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUBD
- Dominik Kubera · LUB3
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE1*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · LUB1
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE0
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE0
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Dominik Kubera · LUB1
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2
- Max Fricke · ZIE1*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB0
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Max Fricke · ZIE1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUBD
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE1*
- Dominik Kubera · LUB0
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2*
- Max Fricke · ZIE1
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB2
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUBD
- Matej Zagar · ZIE3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2*
- Mateusz Cierniak · LUB1
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB2
- Matej Zagar · ZIE1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 8 → 7 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 5 km/h NW
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 84 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| ZIE | LUB | ZIE | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | -6 | 16 % |
| 9 | -6 | 20 % |
| 10 | -6 | 15 % |
| 11 | -6 | 12 % |
| 12 | -10 | 1 % |
| 13 | -8 | 2 % |
| 14 | -4 | 8 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patryk Dudek | 6 | 10.6 | 15 | +4.4 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 5 | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 |
| Matej Zagar | 6 | 9.2 | 12 | +2.8 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 5 | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 |
| Grigorij Laguta | 5 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| Damian Pawliczak | 3 | 1.6 | 3 | +1.4 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 2 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 5 | 9.4 | 9 | -0.4 |
| Jakub Osyczka | 3 | 2.6 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 3 | 4.8 | 3 | -1.8 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 12.3 | 10 | -2.3 |
| Fabian Ragus | 3 | 2.4 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Dominik Kubera | 4 | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 4 | 7.3 | 3 | -4.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.