TOR vs GRU

PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, April 30, 2021 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń

Results

TOR 55 : 35 GRU

TOR

9Paweł Przedpełski0 3 3 06
10Jack Holder3 1 2 0 17+1
11Adrian Miedziński3 2 0 3 19+1
13Chris Holder1 3 3 2 312
14Karol Żupiński2 1 03+1
15Krzysztof Lewandowski3 0 14
16Robert Lambert3 3 2 3 314

GRU

1Przemysław Pawlicki2 1 2 W 1 06+1
2Krzysztof Kasprzak0 1 12+1
3Kenneth Bjerre1 0 2 1 26+1
4Norbert Krakowiak0 11+1
5Nicki Pedersen2 2 3 2 3 214
6Denis Zieliński1 2 0 1 2 06
7Mateusz Bartkowiak0 00

Heat by heat

Heat 159.54 s3:3

Heat 260.10 s5:1

Heat 358.65 s4:2

Heat 459.10 s4:2

Heat 559.06 s5:1

Heat 659.07 s3:3

Heat 759.09 s4:2

Heat 859.62 s3:3

Heat 959.41 s5:1

Heat 1059.90 s2:4

Heat 1159.56 s3:3

Heat 1260.07 s4:2

Heat 1359.72 s2:4

Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
Chris Holder · TOR2
Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1
Jack Holder · TOR0

Heat 1459.19 s4:2

Heat 1559.37 s4:2

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 9 → 8 °C; Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Wind: 8 km/h W; gusts up to 19 km/h; Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 82 %; Measured · Torun, 3 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	16	8	+8	−8
5–7	12	6	+6	−6
8–10	10	8	+2	−2
11–13	9	9	0	0
14–15	8	4	+4	−4
	TOR	GRU	TOR	GRU

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead TOR

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	+4	86 %
3	+6	90 %
4	+8	93 %
5	+12	97 %
6	+12	99 %
7	+14	100 %
8	+14	100 %
9	+18	100 %
10	+16	100 %
11	+16	100 %
12	+18	100 %
13	+16	100 %
14	+18	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Robert Lambert	5	9.7	14	+4.3
Denis Zieliński	6	3.0	6	+3.0
Chris Holder	5	9.4	12	+2.6
Adrian Miedziński	5	7.1	9	+1.9
Nicki Pedersen	6	12.9	14	+1.1
Karol Żupiński	3	3.1	3	-0.1
Krzysztof Lewandowski	3	4.1	4	-0.1
Paweł Przedpełski	4	6.3	6	-0.3
Przemysław Pawlicki	6	6.7	6	-0.7
Kenneth Bjerre	5	6.9	6	-0.9
Krzysztof Kasprzak	3	3.4	2	-1.4
Norbert Krakowiak	2	2.9	1	-1.9
Mateusz Bartkowiak	2	3.0	0	-3.0
Jack Holder	5	11.4	7	-4.4

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 60.1058.65 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 33.7:28.3 outside C + D

Trend ◀ +0.53 towards the inside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source