ZIE vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, April 9, 2021 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Matej Zagar0 3 1 2 17+2
- 10Max Fricke3 2 2 2 09+1
- 11Piotr Protasiewicz3 1 2 3 312
- 12Damian Pawliczak0 3 1 37+1
- 13Patryk Dudek2 3 3 1 211+1
- 14Jakub Osyczka0 D 11
- 15Fabian Ragus3 0 14
- 1Krzysztof Kasprzak2 2 0 04
- 2Norbert Krakowiak1 1 W2+1
- 3Kenneth Bjerre1 0 2 03+1
- 4Przemysław Pawlicki2 2 2 1 2 110
- 5Nicki Pedersen3 1 3 3 3 316
- 6Denis Zieliński1 12+1
- 7Mateusz Bartkowiak2 0 0 02
- 8Roman Lakhbaum00
Heat by heat
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1*
- Matej Zagar · ZIE0
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU2
- Denis Zieliński · GRU1*
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE0
- Max Fricke · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Denis Zieliński · GRU1
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIED
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1*
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Matej Zagar · ZIE3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2*
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE1
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2
- Matej Zagar · ZIE1*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE2
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE3
- Matej Zagar · ZIE2*
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU2
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE1*
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Matej Zagar · ZIE1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Max Fricke · ZIE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 13 → 11 °C
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Wind
- 19 km/h S
- gusts up to 32 km/h
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 41 %
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| ZIE | GRU | ZIE | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Pawliczak | 4 | 2.9 | 7 | +4.1 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 6 | 13.2 | 16 | +2.8 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 7.4 | 10 | +2.6 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 5 | 9.4 | 12 | +2.6 |
| Patryk Dudek | 5 | 9.4 | 11 | +1.6 |
| Denis Zieliński | 2 | 1.2 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Fabian Ragus | 3 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| Roman Lakhbaum | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 3 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 4 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 4 | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 8.9 | 7 | -1.9 |
| Jakub Osyczka | 3 | 4.1 | 1 | -3.1 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 4 | 6.8 | 3 | -3.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.