GOR vs LUB

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 5, 2021 · Stadion GBS Gorzów im. Edwarda Jancarza, Gorzów Wielkopolski

Results

GOR 41 : 49 LUB

GOR

9Szymon Woźniak3 1 0 0 26
10Anders Thomsen2 3 2 1 1 110
11Martin Vaculik1 1 1 2 05
12Rafał Karczmarz00
13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 3 3 318
14Kamil Nowacki0 T0
15Wiktor Jasinski1 0 W 12+1
16Marcus BirkemoseW0

LUB

1Mikkel Michelsen2 2 3 3 212
3Jarosław Hampel0 3 2 05
4Krzysztof Buczkowski3 2 1 2 08+2
5Grigorij Laguta1 2 2 2 310+1
6Wiktor Lampart3 1 04
7Mateusz Cierniak2 0 02+1
8Dominik Kubera2 1 1 3 18+1

Heat by heat

Heat 160.29 s4:2

Heat 260.65 s1:5

Heat 359.10 s3:3

Heat 460.43 s2:4

Heat 561.04 s1:5

Heat 659.14 s3:3

Heat 759.85 s4:2

Heat 859.35 s3:3

Heat 959.69 s2:4

Heat 1059.32 s4:2

Heat 1160.53 s1:5

Heat 1260.11 s3:3

Heat 1359.83 s4:2

Heat 1459.77 s2:4

Heat 1559.18 s4:2

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 21 → 19 °C; Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
Wind: 10 km/h SE; gusts up to 26 km/h; Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 46 %; Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	10	14	−4	+4
5–7	8	10	−2	+2
8–10	9	9	0	0
11–13	8	10	−2	+2
14–15	6	6	0	0
	GOR	LUB	GOR	LUB

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead GOR

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	+2	79 %
2	-2	54 %
3	-2	47 %
4	-4	38 %
5	-8	18 %
6	-8	18 %
7	-6	18 %
8	-6	16 %
9	-8	12 %
10	-6	15 %
11	-10	1 %
12	-10	1 %
13	-8	2 %
14	-10	0 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Mikkel Michelsen	5	8.1	12	+3.9
Krzysztof Buczkowski	5	5.2	8	+2.8
Bartosz Zmarzlik	6	15.5	18	+2.5
Grigorij Laguta	5	8.7	10	+1.3
Dominik Kubera	5	7.8	8	+0.2
Anders Thomsen	6	9.9	10	+0.1
Rafał Karczmarz	1	0.3	0	-0.3
Jarosław Hampel	4	5.4	5	-0.4
Wiktor Lampart	3	4.5	4	-0.5
Marcus Birkemose	1	0.5	0	-0.5
Wiktor Jasinski	4	2.8	2	-0.8
Mateusz Cierniak	3	2.8	2	-0.8
Kamil Nowacki	2	1.0	0	-1.0
Szymon Woźniak	5	8.2	6	-2.2
Martin Vaculik	5	9.4	5	-4.4

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 61.0459.10 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 37.7:27.0 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −2.30 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source