GRU vs CZE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 22, 2021 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki3 1 3 3 313
- 10Kenneth Bjerre3 3 2 W 19+1
- 11Krzysztof Kasprzak2 3 3 1 110+1
- 13Nicki Pedersen3 1 2 2 311
- 14Seweryn Orgacki1 0 01
- 15Miłosz Wysocki0 0 U0
- 16Norbert Krakowiak0 2 1 14+1
- 1Kacper Woryna0 2 1 03+1
- 2Bartosz Smektała2 3 0 3 08
- 3Fredrik Lindgren1 1 1 14
- 4Jonas Jeppesen2 0 3 2 29
- 5Leon Madsen1 2 2 3 210+1
- 6Jakub Miśkowiak3 1 04+1
- 7Mateusz Świdnicki2 0 2 04+2
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Kacper Woryna · CZE0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE3
- Mateusz Świdnicki · CZE2*
- Seweryn Orgacki · GRU1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE2
- Leon Madsen · CZE1*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE1*
- Seweryn Orgacki · GRU0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE0
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE3
- Kacper Woryna · CZE2*
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU1
- Mateusz Świdnicki · CZE0
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Seweryn Orgacki · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU2*
- Kacper Woryna · CZE1
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · CZE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Kacper Woryna · CZE0
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE3
- Mateusz Świdnicki · CZE2*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GRUU
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Jonas Jeppesen · CZE2
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1
- Mateusz Świdnicki · CZE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU1
- Bartosz Smektała · CZE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 21 → 17 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 11 km/h NE
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 62 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| GRU | CZE | GRU | CZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +2 | 74 % |
| 14 | +4 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 8.0 | 13 | +5.0 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 5.4 | 10 | +4.6 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 5 | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 |
| Jonas Jeppesen | 5 | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 9.8 | 11 | +1.2 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 4 | 3.4 | 4 | +0.6 |
| Bartosz Smektała | 5 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | -0.0 |
| Seweryn Orgacki | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Leon Madsen | 5 | 11.4 | 10 | -1.4 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 3 | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 |
| Miłosz Wysocki | 3 | 2.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Kacper Woryna | 4 | 7.3 | 3 | -4.3 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 4 | 8.9 | 4 | -4.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.