TOR vs LUB

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 25, 2021 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń

Results

TOR 44 : 46 LUB

TOR

9Paweł Przedpełski3 2 2 0 310+2
10Jack Holder1 3 3 1 19
11Adrian MiedzińskiW 3 2 3 08
12Chris Holder1 1 0 24+1
14Krzysztof Lewandowski2 0 02
15Kamil Marciniec0 0 00
16Robert Lambert2 2 2 3 211+1

LUB

1Grigorij Laguta2 3 1 3 312
2Krzysztof Buczkowski0 1 01
3Jarosław Hampel1 0 0 01
5Mikkel Michelsen3 1 3 2 211+1
6Wiktor Lampart3 2 3 1 211+1
7Mateusz Cierniak1 0 12+1
8Dominik Kubera3 2 1 1 18

Heat by heat

Heat 159.91 s3:3

Heat 260.37 s2:4

Heat 359.68 s3:3

Heat 459.76 s1:5

Heat 560.04 s4:2

Heat 659.55 s2:4

Heat 759.55 s5:1

Heat 860.45 s2:4

Heat 959.39 s5:1

Heat 1059.85 s2:4

Heat 1159.48 s2:4

Heat 1259.84 s3:3

Heat 1359.42 s4:2

Heat 1459.79 s5:1

Heat 1559.58 s1:5

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Thunderstorm → Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 22 → 20 °C; Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Wind: 6 km/h NE; gusts up to 17 km/h; Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 84 %; Measured · Torun, 3 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	9	15	−6	+6
5–7	11	7	+4	−4
8–10	9	9	0	0
11–13	9	9	0	0
14–15	6	6	0	0
	TOR	LUB	TOR	LUB

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead TOR

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	-2	54 %
3	-2	47 %
4	-6	23 %
5	-4	34 %
6	-6	24 %
7	-2	46 %
8	-4	35 %
9	0	56 %
10	-2	36 %
11	-4	18 %
12	-4	20 %
13	-2	33 %
14	+2	77 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Wiktor Lampart	5	8.1	11	+2.9
Paweł Przedpełski	5	8.1	10	+1.9
Adrian Miedziński	5	6.5	8	+1.5
Robert Lambert	5	9.5	11	+1.5
Mikkel Michelsen	5	9.9	11	+1.1
Grigorij Laguta	5	11.0	12	+1.0
Jack Holder	5	8.3	9	+0.7
Dominik Kubera	5	8.0	8	-0.0
Krzysztof Lewandowski	3	2.4	2	-0.4
Kamil Marciniec	3	1.0	0	-1.0
Chris Holder	4	5.5	4	-1.5
Krzysztof Buczkowski	3	2.7	1	-1.7
Mateusz Cierniak	3	3.7	2	-1.7
Jarosław Hampel	4	5.4	1	-4.4

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 60.4559.39 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 32.0:28.7 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −1.30 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source