GRU vs TOR
PGE Ekstraliga · Tuesday, July 13, 2021 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki2 2 3 3 W10
- 10Roman Lakhbaum3 1 2 1 07+3
- 11Krzysztof Kasprzak1 3 2 3 312+1
- 12Kenneth BjerreW 0 1 01+1
- 14Mateusz Bartkowiak3 0 03
- 15Denis Zieliński1 0 U1
- 16Norbert Krakowiak2 3 3 2 111
- 1Paweł Przedpełski3 2 1 2 210
- 3Chris Holder0 1 1 0 24+3
- 4Adrian Miedziński2 2 2 1 18+1
- 6Karol Żupiński0 1 0 0 12+1
- 7Krzysztof Lewandowski2 1 1 0 26+1
- 8Robert Lambert3 3 3 3 315
Heat by heat
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU1*
- Chris Holder · TOR0
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU3
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR2
- Denis Zieliński · GRU1
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Karol Żupiński · TOR1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1*
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU0
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR1*
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU2*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU2
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1*
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1*
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR2
- Karol Żupiński · TOR1
- Denis Zieliński · GRUU
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU1*
- Chris Holder · TOR0
- Robert Lambert · TOR3
- Chris Holder · TOR2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GRU3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 25 → 21 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 6 km/h E
- gusts up to 14 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 87 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| GRU | TOR | GRU | TOR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norbert Krakowiak | 5 | 6.1 | 11 | +4.9 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 7.8 | 12 | +4.2 |
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 12.1 | 15 | +2.9 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 7.9 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Roman Lakhbaum | 5 | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 5 | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 5 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 5 | 11.4 | 10 | -1.4 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Karol Żupiński | 5 | 4.2 | 2 | -2.2 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 8.7 | 4 | -4.7 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 4 | 6.7 | 1 | -5.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.