TOR vs ZIE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 4, 2021 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Paweł Przedpełski2 3 0 3 311+1
- 10Jack Holder3 2 1 3 110+2
- 11Adrian Miedziński3 W 2 2 29+1
- 13Chris Holder2 2 3 1 210
- 14Krzysztof Lewandowski2 2 04+1
- 15Karol Żupiński1 0 12+2
- 16Robert Lambert1 2 1 15+2
- 1Jan Kvech1 01
- 2Patryk Dudek3 3 3 3 1 013
- 3Max Fricke1 3 2 2 2 313+1
- 4Piotr Protasiewicz1 1 1 25+1
- 5Matej Zagar0 1 3 W D4
- 6Fabian Ragus3 0 0 03
- 7Jakub Osyczka0 00
- 8Damian Pawliczak00
Heat by heat
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2*
- Max Fricke · ZIE1
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE0
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR2
- Karol Żupiński · TOR1*
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Chris Holder · TOR2
- Robert Lambert · TOR1*
- Matej Zagar · ZIE0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR2*
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Max Fricke · ZIE3
- Robert Lambert · TOR2
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Chris Holder · TOR2
- Jan Kvech · ZIE1
- Karol Żupiński · TOR0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Jack Holder · TOR2*
- Matej Zagar · ZIE1
- Jakub Osyczka · ZIE0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1*
- Krzysztof Lewandowski · TOR0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2*
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Matej Zagar · ZIE3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Robert Lambert · TOR1*
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE2
- Robert Lambert · TOR1
- Jan Kvech · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Karol Żupiński · TOR1*
- Fabian Ragus · ZIE0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Max Fricke · ZIE2
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2*
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE1
- Matej Zagar · ZIED
- Max Fricke · ZIE3
- Chris Holder · TOR2
- Jack Holder · TOR1*
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 9 → 8 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h SW
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 40 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| TOR | ZIE | TOR | ZIE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paweł Przedpełski | 5 | 6.4 | 11 | +4.6 |
| Patryk Dudek | 6 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 10.7 | 13 | +2.3 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 5 | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 8.4 | 10 | +1.6 |
| Krzysztof Lewandowski | 3 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.6 | 10 | -0.6 |
| Karol Żupiński | 3 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Jan Kvech | 2 | 1.6 | 1 | -0.6 |
| Damian Pawliczak | 1 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Fabian Ragus | 4 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 4 | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Jakub Osyczka | 2 | 2.2 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Robert Lambert | 4 | 8.2 | 5 | -3.2 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 8.7 | 4 | -4.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.