GOR vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 9, 2020 · Stadion GBS Gorzów im. Edwarda Jancarza, Gorzów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Jack Holder1 2 2 3 19+2
- 10Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 3 3 318
- 11Niels Kristian IversenW 2 1 25+2
- 12Krzysztof Kasprzak0 2 1 03
- 13Anders Thomsen1 3 2 2 08+1
- 14Wiktor Jasinski1 01
- 15Rafał Karczmarz3 0 0 03
- 1Jakub Jamróg2 1 1 26+2
- 2Grigorij Laguta3 2 W 3 3 213
- 3Matej Zagar3 1 3 1 19+1
- 4Jarosław Hampel1 0 1 02+1
- 5Mikkel Michelsen2 1 3 0 28+2
- 6Wiktor Lampart0 2 0 13
- 7Viktor Trofymov2 02
Heat by heat
- Matej Zagar · LUB3
- Jakub Jamróg · LUB2*
- Jack Holder · GOR1
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR3
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB2
- Wiktor Jasinski · GOR1
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB0
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2*
- Anders Thomsen · GOR1
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1*
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GOR2*
- Matej Zagar · LUB1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Anders Thomsen · GOR3
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB2
- Jakub Jamróg · LUB1*
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Jack Holder · GOR2*
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB1
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB0
- Matej Zagar · LUB3
- Anders Thomsen · GOR2
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB1
- Wiktor Jasinski · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Jack Holder · GOR2*
- Jakub Jamróg · LUB1
- Grigorij Laguta · LUBW
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GOR1*
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB0
- Jack Holder · GOR3
- Jakub Jamróg · LUB2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR1
- Jarosław Hampel · LUB0
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GOR2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Anders Thomsen · GOR2*
- Matej Zagar · LUB1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB0
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2*
- Jack Holder · GOR1
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Grigorij Laguta · LUB2
- Matej Zagar · LUB1*
- Anders Thomsen · GOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Thunderstorm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 °C
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h E
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 52 %
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| GOR | LUB | GOR | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -6 | 32 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +4 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 6 | 13.6 | 18 | +4.4 |
| Jakub Jamróg | 4 | 4.2 | 6 | +1.8 |
| Anders Thomsen | 5 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 8.2 | 9 | +0.8 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 8.3 | 9 | +0.7 |
| Grigorij Laguta | 6 | 12.6 | 13 | +0.4 |
| Viktor Trofymov | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 5 | 8.1 | 8 | -0.1 |
| Rafał Karczmarz | 4 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 4 | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 4 | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 4 | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 4 | 6.5 | 2 | -4.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.