ZIE vs CZE

PGE Ekstraliga · Monday, June 22, 2020 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra

Results

ZIE 31 : 59 CZE

ZIE

9Martin Vaculik1 3 2 2 2 111
10Patryk Dudek2 1 1 1 1 06+1
11Antonio Lindbäck0 1 01+1
12Michael Jepsen Jensen0 00
13Piotr Protasiewicz2 1 W 3 0 39
14Mateusz Tonder1 1 2 0 04+1
15Norbert Krakowiak0 D0

CZE

1Jason Doyle2 3 3 3 314+1
2Rune Holta1 2 0 25+1
3Fredrik Lindgren3 3 1 2 110+2
4Paweł Przedpełski0 2 3 1 28+1
5Leon Madsen3 2 3 3 213+1
6Jakub Miśkowiak2 3 05+1
7Mateusz Świdnicki3 0 14+1

Heat by heat

Heat 160.88 s1:5

Heat 262.14 s1:5

Heat 360.71 s2:4

Heat 460.96 s3:3

Heat 561.67 s1:5

Heat 661.86 s1:5

Heat 761.24 s4:2

Heat 861.96 s2:4

Heat 962.11 s3:3

Jason Doyle · CZE3
Martin Vaculik · ZIE2
Patryk Dudek · ZIE1*
Rune Holta · CZE0

Heat 1061.42 s3:3

Heat 1162.40 s2:4

Heat 1262.06 s3:3

Heat 1361.86 s1:5

Heat 1462.71 s3:3

Heat 1562.45 s1:5

Jason Doyle · CZE3
Leon Madsen · CZE2*
Martin Vaculik · ZIE1
Patryk Dudek · ZIE0

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Cloudy → Clear; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 26 → 23 °C; Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Wind: 20 km/h NW; gusts up to 37 km/h; Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 41 %; Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	7	17	−10	+10
5–7	6	12	−6	+6
8–10	8	10	−2	+2
11–13	6	12	−6	+6
14–15	4	8	−4	+4
	ZIE	CZE	ZIE	CZE

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead ZIE

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	-4	45 %
2	-8	11 %
3	-10	7 %
4	-10	8 %
5	-14	0 %
6	-18	6 %
7	-16	4 %
8	-18	1 %
9	-18	1 %
10	-18	2 %
11	-20	1 %
12	-20	0 %
13	-24	0 %
14	-24	0 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Jason Doyle	5	9.5	14	+4.5
Jakub Miśkowiak	3	2.9	5	+2.1
Martin Vaculik	6	9.7	11	+1.3
Mateusz Świdnicki	3	2.9	4	+1.1
Paweł Przedpełski	5	7.4	8	+0.6
Mateusz Tonder	5	3.4	4	+0.6
Leon Madsen	5	12.7	13	+0.3
Piotr Protasiewicz	6	8.9	9	+0.1
Rune Holta	4	5.2	5	-0.2
Fredrik Lindgren	5	10.3	10	-0.3
Patryk Dudek	6	7.5	6	-1.5
Norbert Krakowiak	2	2.4	0	-2.4
Antonio Lindbäck	3	3.9	1	-2.9
Michael Jepsen Jensen	2	3.3	0	-3.3

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 62.7160.71 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 24.7:31.3 outside C + D

Trend ◀ +0.77 towards the inside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source