ZIE vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, May 10, 2019 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Nicki Pedersen3 3 3 2 213+1
- 10Michael Jepsen Jensen1 2 2 2 29+4
- 11Piotr Protasiewicz1 3 1 3 311
- 12Patryk DudekW 0 3 14+1
- 13Martin Vaculik3 3 2 3 314
- 14Damian Pawliczak0 0 00
- 15Norbert Krakowiak1 1 13
- 1Paweł Miesiąc2 2 3 2 09
- 2Andreas Jonsson0 1 W1+1
- 3Dawid Lampart2 1 0 1 15+2
- 4Robert Lambert3 2 1 0 06
- 5Mikkel Michelsen2 1 2 0 3 19
- 6Wiktor Lampart2 0 13+2
- 7Viktor Trofymov3 0 03
Heat by heat
- Nicki Pedersen · ZIE3
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE1
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB0
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB3
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · ZIE1
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE0
- Robert Lambert · LUB3
- Dawid Lampart · LUB2*
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Martin Vaculik · ZIE3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2
- Norbert Krakowiak · ZIE1
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB2
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB1*
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE0
- Martin Vaculik · ZIE3
- Robert Lambert · LUB2
- Dawid Lampart · LUB1*
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE0
- Nicki Pedersen · ZIE3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE2*
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB1
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB0
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB3
- Martin Vaculik · ZIE2
- Norbert Krakowiak · ZIE1
- Nicki Pedersen · ZIE3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE2*
- Robert Lambert · LUB1
- Dawid Lampart · LUB0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB0
- Martin Vaculik · ZIE3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE2*
- Dawid Lampart · LUB1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1*
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE0
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB3
- Nicki Pedersen · ZIE2
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE1*
- Robert Lambert · LUB0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE2*
- Dawid Lampart · LUB1
- Robert Lambert · LUB0
- Martin Vaculik · ZIE3
- Nicki Pedersen · ZIE2*
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB1
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 → 13 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 8 km/h W
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 73 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| ZIE | LUB | ZIE | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -6 | 32 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -4 | 33 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Vaculik | 5 | 10.8 | 14 | +3.2 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 5 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.5 | 13 | +2.5 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| Paweł Miesiąc | 5 | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 3 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Viktor Trofymov | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | +0.0 |
| Dawid Lampart | 5 | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 3 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | -1.9 |
| Damian Pawliczak | 3 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Andreas Jonsson | 3 | 3.9 | 1 | -2.9 |
| Patryk Dudek | 4 | 7.6 | 4 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.