GOR vs LUB
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, April 12, 2019 · Stadion GBS Gorzów im. Edwarda Jancarza, Gorzów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Bartosz Zmarzlik3 2 3 3 2 316+1
- 10Peter Kildemand0 1 01
- 11Szymon Woźniak2 1 3 3 211+2
- 12Anders Thomsen0 1 3 37
- 13Krzysztof Kasprzak0 2 0 13+1
- 14Mateusz Bartkowiak0 00
- 15Rafał Karczmarz1 3 3 3 1 011
- 1Mikkel Michelsen2 3 1 2 19+1
- 2Robert Lambert1 0 2 3 17+2
- 3Dawid Lampart3 1 W 2 T6+1
- 4Paweł Miesiąc1 0 2 03
- 5Andreas Jonsson1 2 2 1 06+1
- 6Wiktor Lampart3 0 14+1
- 7Viktor Trofymov2 2 0 26+1
Heat by heat
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2
- Robert Lambert · LUB1*
- Peter Kildemand · GOR0
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB3
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB2*
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR0
- Dawid Lampart · LUB3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB1
- Anders Thomsen · GOR0
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR3
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB2
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB1*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR0
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR2
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR1*
- Robert Lambert · LUB0
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR2*
- Dawid Lampart · LUB1
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB2
- Peter Kildemand · GOR1
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB0
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR3
- Robert Lambert · LUB2
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB1*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB2
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR1
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB2
- Anders Thomsen · GOR1
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB0
- Robert Lambert · LUB3
- Dawid Lampart · LUB2*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR1
- Peter Kildemand · GOR0
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB2
- Wiktor Lampart · LUB1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR0
- Anders Thomsen · GOR3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR2*
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB1
- Paweł Miesiąc · LUB0
- Anders Thomsen · GOR3
- Viktor Trofymov · LUB2
- Robert Lambert · LUB1*
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2*
- Mikkel Michelsen · LUB1
- Andreas Jonsson · LUB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 4 °C
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 60 %
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| GOR | LUB | GOR | LUB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -6 | 32 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +4 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafał Karczmarz | 6 | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 |
| Szymon Woźniak | 5 | 6.7 | 11 | +4.3 |
| Viktor Trofymov | 4 | 3.8 | 6 | +2.2 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 6 | 14.5 | 16 | +1.5 |
| Dawid Lampart | 4 | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 5 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 3 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Anders Thomsen | 4 | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Robert Lambert | 5 | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 |
| Andreas Jonsson | 5 | 7.6 | 6 | -1.6 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Paweł Miesiąc | 4 | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Peter Kildemand | 3 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 4 | 8.1 | 3 | -5.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.