GOR vs OST
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, October 6, 2019 · Stadion GBS Gorzów im. Edwarda Jancarza, Gorzów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Szymon Woźniak2 3 3 2 212+2
- 10Peter KildemandW 2 13+1
- 11Krzysztof Kasprzak3 2 1 3 211+2
- 12Anders Thomsen2 1 2 3 311+2
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 3 3 3 315
- 14Mateusz Bartkowiak2 0 13+1
- 15Rafał Karczmarz3 1 04
- 16Frederik Jakobsen11
- 1Nicolai Klindt3 3 1 2 2 D11+1
- 2Oleksandr Loktayev1 01
- 3Tomasz Gapiński1 2 1 0 15
- 4Sam Masters0 1 W 01+1
- 5Grzegorz Walasek2 2 2 3 1 111
- 6Kamil NowackiD 00
- 7Marcin Kościelski1 0 01
- 8Sebastian Szostak0 00
Heat by heat
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · OST1
- Peter Kildemand · GORW
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR2*
- Marcin Kościelski · OST1
- Kamil Nowacki · OSTD
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR3
- Anders Thomsen · GOR2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Sam Masters · OST0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR1
- Marcin Kościelski · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR2
- Anders Thomsen · GOR1*
- Oleksandr Loktayev · OST0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Sam Masters · OST1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR0
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GOR1
- Kamil Nowacki · OST0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Nicolai Klindt · OST1*
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR0
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Peter Kildemand · GOR2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Anders Thomsen · GOR2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR1*
- Marcin Kościelski · OST0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Peter Kildemand · GOR1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GOR1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Anders Thomsen · GOR3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Sam Masters · OST0
- Anders Thomsen · GOR3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Nicolai Klindt · OSTD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 9 → 5 °C
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Wind
- 4 km/h NE
- gusts up to 11 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 71 %
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| GOR | OST | GOR | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +16 | 100 % |
| 12 | +18 | 100 % |
| 13 | +22 | 100 % |
| 14 | +26 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szymon Woźniak | 5 | 8.6 | 12 | +3.4 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 6 | 8.8 | 11 | +2.2 |
| Anders Thomsen | 5 | 8.9 | 11 | +2.1 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 6 | 9.6 | 11 | +1.4 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 10.4 | 11 | +0.6 |
| Rafał Karczmarz | 3 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 3 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| Peter Kildemand | 3 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 1 | 1.6 | 1 | -0.6 |
| Marcin Kościelski | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Kamil Nowacki | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 2 | 1.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 7.0 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Sam Masters | 4 | 4.8 | 1 | -3.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.