ZIE vs TOR

PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, April 5, 2019 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra

Results

ZIE 53 : 37 TOR

ZIE

9Patryk Dudek1 3 3 2 211+2
10Michael Jepsen Jensen2 1 0 14+1
11Piotr Protasiewicz3 0 1 3 29+2
12Martin Vaculik2 3 2 1 311+2
13Nicki Pedersen3 3 3 2 314
14Mateusz Tonder3 0 03
15Norbert KrakowiakW 1 01

TOR

1Jason Doyle3 2 2 2 1 010
2Norbert Kościuch0 1 1 02+2
4Chris Holder1 2 2 05
5Niels Kristian Iversen2 2 3 3 3 114
6Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński2 0 13+1
7Maksymilian Bogdanowicz1 W 01
8Jack Holder0 1 1 02+2

Heat by heat

Heat 161.81 s3:3

Heat 261.54 s3:3

Heat 361.53 s5:1

Heat 461.82 s4:2

Heat 562.06 s3:3

Heat 661.85 s3:3

Nicki Pedersen · ZIE3
Chris Holder · TOR2
Jack Holder · TOR1*
Mateusz Tonder · ZIE0

Heat 761.31 s4:2

Heat 861.90 s3:3

Heat 961.56 s3:3

Heat 1062.06 s3:3

Heat 1162.57 s3:3

Heat 1262.60 s3:3

Heat 1361.94 s3:3

Heat 1462.03 s5:1

Heat 1562.25 s5:1

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Partly cloudy → Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 19 → 18 °C; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Wind: 10 km/h SE; gusts up to 26 km/h; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain during the meeting: 0.2 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 39 %; Regional estimate (Meteostat)

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	15	9	+6	−6
5–7	10	8	+2	−2
8–10	9	9	0	0
11–13	9	9	0	0
14–15	10	2	+8	−8
	ZIE	TOR	ZIE	TOR

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead ZIE

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	0	64 %
3	+4	82 %
4	+6	90 %
5	+6	90 %
6	+6	88 %
7	+8	95 %
8	+8	94 %
9	+8	94 %
10	+8	95 %
11	+8	95 %
12	+8	98 %
13	+8	98 %
14	+12	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Nicki Pedersen	5	10.3	14	+3.7
Martin Vaculik	5	7.5	11	+3.5
Niels Kristian Iversen	6	11.2	14	+2.8
Piotr Protasiewicz	5	6.6	9	+2.4
Patryk Dudek	5	8.6	11	+2.4
Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński	3	2.1	3	+0.9
Mateusz Tonder	3	2.5	3	+0.5
Chris Holder	4	6.0	5	-1.0
Norbert Krakowiak	3	2.3	1	-1.3
Michael Jepsen Jensen	4	5.8	4	-1.8
Maksymilian Bogdanowicz	3	3.0	1	-2.0
Norbert Kościuch	4	4.8	2	-2.8
Jason Doyle	6	13.6	10	-3.6
Jack Holder	4	5.6	2	-3.6

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 62.6061.31 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 33.3:30.7 outside C + D

Trend ▶ −1.83 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source