GOR vs CZE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 20, 2018 · Stadion GBS Gorzów im. Edwarda Jancarza, Gorzów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Krzysztof KasprzakW 3 3 2 311
- 10Grzegorz Walasek1 2 2 27+3
- 11Szymon Woźniak3 2 3 3 213+1
- 12Linus Sundstroem0 W 1 12+1
- 13Bartosz Zmarzlik3 1 3 3 313
- 14Alan Szczotka1 0 01+1
- 15Rafał Karczmarz2 2 2 06+2
- 1Leon Madsen3 3 2 2 1 011
- 2Tobiasz Musielak2 1 1 15+2
- 3Adrian Miedziński2 2 0 W4+1
- 4Matej Zagar1 3 1 3 0 19+1
- 5Fredrik Lindgren1 1 2 04
- 6Michał Gruchalski3 D 14+1
- 7Adrian Woźniak0 0 D0
Heat by heat
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · CZE2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · GOR1
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GORW
- Michał Gruchalski · CZE3
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR2
- Alan Szczotka · GOR1*
- Adrian Woźniak · CZE0
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Adrian Miedziński · CZE2
- Matej Zagar · CZE1*
- Linus Sundstroem · GOR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Adrian Woźniak · CZE0
- Leon Madsen · CZE3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2
- Tobiasz Musielak · CZE1
- Matej Zagar · CZE3
- Adrian Miedziński · CZE2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR1
- Alan Szczotka · GOR0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR3
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR2*
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE1
- Michał Gruchalski · CZED
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Tobiasz Musielak · CZE1*
- Rafał Karczmarz · GOR0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · GOR2*
- Matej Zagar · CZE1
- Adrian Miedziński · CZE0
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE2
- Linus Sundstroem · GOR1
- Adrian Woźniak · CZED
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · GOR2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · CZE1
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR3
- Leon Madsen · CZE2
- Michał Gruchalski · CZE1*
- Alan Szczotka · GOR0
- Matej Zagar · CZE3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR2
- Linus Sundstroem · GOR1*
- Fredrik Lindgren · CZE0
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · GOR2*
- Leon Madsen · CZE1
- Matej Zagar · CZE0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · GOR3
- Szymon Woźniak · GOR2*
- Matej Zagar · CZE1
- Leon Madsen · CZE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 → 15 °C
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h E
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 33 %
- Measured · Gorzow Wlkp, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| GOR | CZE | GOR | CZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | -6 | 24 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szymon Woźniak | 5 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 4 | 3.6 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 5 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | +1.8 |
| Michał Gruchalski | 3 | 2.6 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Rafał Karczmarz | 4 | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Leon Madsen | 6 | 11.6 | 11 | -0.6 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 4 | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 |
| Matej Zagar | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | -1.4 |
| Adrian Woźniak | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Alan Szczotka | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Linus Sundstroem | 4 | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Fredrik Lindgren | 4 | 10.0 | 4 | -6.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.