TOR vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 29, 2018 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Niels Kristian Iversen1 2 03
- 10Paweł PrzedpełskiW 11+1
- 11Jason Doyle2 2 2 3 110+1
- 12Chris Holder3 1 1 2 310+3
- 13Rune Holta3 3 3 1 010
- 14Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński2 0 13+1
- 15Daniel Kaczmarek3 1 04
- 16Jack Holder3 3 3 110
- 1Przemysław Pawlicki3 3 2 2 2 214+1
- 2Antonio Lindbäck2 0 1 03+2
- 3Krzysztof Buczkowski1 2 2 2 0 07
- 4Krystian Pieszczek0 11+1
- 5Artem Laguta2 3 1 3 1 313+1
- 6Kamil Wieczorek0 0 00
- 7Dawid Wawrzyniak1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Antonio Lindbäck · GRU2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR3
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR2*
- Dawid Wawrzyniak · GRU1
- Kamil Wieczorek · GRU0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Jason Doyle · TOR2*
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU1
- Krystian Pieszczek · GRU0
- Rune Holta · TOR3
- Artem Laguta · GRU2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR1
- Dawid Wawrzyniak · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Jason Doyle · TOR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1*
- Antonio Lindbäck · GRU0
- Rune Holta · TOR3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU2
- Krystian Pieszczek · GRU1*
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Artem Laguta · GRU3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1*
- Kamil Wieczorek · GRU0
- Rune Holta · TOR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Antonio Lindbäck · GRU1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU2
- Artem Laguta · GRU1*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR0
- Artem Laguta · GRU3
- Jason Doyle · TOR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1*
- Dawid Wawrzyniak · GRU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU2
- Rune Holta · TOR1
- Antonio Lindbäck · GRU0
- Jason Doyle · TOR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1
- Kamil Wieczorek · GRU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Chris Holder · TOR2*
- Artem Laguta · GRU1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU0
- Artem Laguta · GRU3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2*
- Jason Doyle · TOR1
- Rune Holta · TOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Temperature
- 25 → 23 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.4 mm
- Possible showers: a second model has the day dry
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 47 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| TOR | GRU | TOR | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Holder | 4 | 4.2 | 10 | +5.8 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 10.8 | 14 | +3.2 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 8.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| Artem Laguta | 6 | 12.1 | 13 | +0.9 |
| Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Rune Holta | 5 | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.2 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Krystian Pieszczek | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Dawid Wawrzyniak | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | -1.7 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 3 | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Kamil Wieczorek | 3 | 2.2 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Antonio Lindbäck | 4 | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.