ZIE vs TAR
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 26, 2018 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Patryk Dudek3 3 3 3 214+1
- 10Grzegorz Zengota1 1 2 1 27+2
- 11Piotr Protasiewicz2 3 1 U 39+1
- 12Jacob Thorssell0 0 2 13
- 13Michael Jepsen Jensen1 1 3 3 311+1
- 14Mateusz Tonder3 0 14
- 15Damian Pawliczak1 2 03
- 1Nicki Pedersen2 2 2 2 08+1
- 2Artur Mroczka0 1 1 W2+2
- 3Jakub Jamróg3 2 1 2 08+1
- 4Peter Kildemand1 3 0 0 15
- 5Kenneth Bjerre3 2 3 2 111
- 6Patryk Rolnicki2 0 35
- 7Kacper Konieczny0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Grzegorz Zengota · ZIE1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Mateusz Tonder · ZIE3
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR2
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE1
- Kacper Konieczny · TAR0
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR3
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE2
- Peter Kildemand · TAR1
- Jacob Thorssell · ZIE0
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE1*
- Kacper Konieczny · TAR0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Jacob Thorssell · ZIE0
- Peter Kildemand · TAR3
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR2*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE1
- Mateusz Tonder · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR2
- Grzegorz Zengota · ZIE1
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Damian Pawliczak · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Grzegorz Zengota · ZIE2*
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR1
- Peter Kildemand · TAR0
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Jacob Thorssell · ZIE2
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1*
- Kacper Konieczny · TAR0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE3
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR2
- Grzegorz Zengota · ZIE1
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2*
- Mateusz Tonder · ZIE1
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIEU
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR2
- Jacob Thorssell · ZIE1
- Peter Kildemand · TAR0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Grzegorz Zengota · ZIE2*
- Peter Kildemand · TAR1
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · ZIE3
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE2*
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR1
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 17 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 7 km/h W
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 43 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| ZIE | TAR | ZIE | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +2 | 73 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patryk Dudek | 5 | 10.0 | 14 | +4.0 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 8.6 | 11 | +2.4 |
| Patryk Rolnicki | 3 | 3.0 | 5 | +2.0 |
| Grzegorz Zengota | 5 | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Mateusz Tonder | 3 | 2.5 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 5 | 9.8 | 11 | +1.2 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 5 | 9.1 | 9 | -0.1 |
| Jakub Jamróg | 5 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Damian Pawliczak | 3 | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Kacper Konieczny | 3 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Jacob Thorssell | 4 | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Peter Kildemand | 5 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| Artur Mroczka | 4 | 4.8 | 2 | -2.8 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 11.4 | 8 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.