TOR vs TAR
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 12, 2018 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Jason Doyle2 3 0 3 210+1
- 11Paweł Przedpełski1 2 1 26+1
- 12Chris Holder2 1 3 0 17+1
- 13Niels Kristian Iversen3 3 3 3 012
- 14Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński2 0 02+1
- 15Daniel Kaczmarek3 1 04
- 16Jack Holder3 1 1 2 310+1
- 1Kenneth Bjerre1 3 2 3 2 314
- 2Artur Mroczka00
- 3Jakub Jamróg3 2 1 2 0 19+2
- 4Peter Kildemand0 1 3 1 05+1
- 5Nicki Pedersen2 2 2 1 29+1
- 6Patryk Rolnicki1 0 0 12
- 7Kacper Konieczny0 00
- 8Viktor Kulakov00
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Jason Doyle · TOR2*
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR3
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR2*
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR1
- Kacper Konieczny · TAR0
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR3
- Chris Holder · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1*
- Peter Kildemand · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR1
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR0
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1*
- Viktor Kulakov · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR3
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR2
- Peter Kildemand · TAR1*
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Jason Doyle · TOR3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR3
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR2
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR0
- Peter Kildemand · TAR3
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR2*
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Jason Doyle · TOR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Kacper Konieczny · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR3
- Jack Holder · TOR2*
- Peter Kildemand · TAR1
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR0
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR2
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR1
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Jason Doyle · TOR3
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR2
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR1*
- Chris Holder · TOR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Nicki Pedersen · TAR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Peter Kildemand · TAR0
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Jason Doyle · TOR2
- Jakub Jamróg · TAR1
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h SW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.7 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 37 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| TOR | TAR | TOR | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +8 | 96 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +10 | 97 % |
| 7 | +12 | 99 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Bjerre | 6 | 9.2 | 14 | +4.8 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 6.1 | 10 | +3.9 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 5 | 9.7 | 12 | +2.3 |
| Jakub Jamróg | 6 | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 4 | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński | 3 | 2.2 | 2 | -0.2 |
| Artur Mroczka | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Viktor Kulakov | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Kacper Konieczny | 2 | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.3 | 9 | -1.3 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| Patryk Rolnicki | 4 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 8.9 | 7 | -1.9 |
| Peter Kildemand | 5 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.