LES vs ZIE
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 11, 2014 · Stadion im. Alfreda Smoczyka, Leszno
Results
- 9Nicki Pedersen2 2 3 1 D8+1
- 10Damian Baliński3 1 1 16+1
- 11Przemysław Pawlicki1 3 2 3 110
- 12Mikkel Michelsen0 00
- 13Grzegorz Zengota1 3 0 04+1
- 14Tobiasz Musielak3 2 1 2 08+3
- 15Piotr Pawlicki1 2 1 3 18
- 1Patryk DudekW 1 3 04+1
- 2Oleksandr Loktayev1 2 2 2 29+3
- 3Piotr Protasiewicz3 1 0 3 310
- 4Andreas Jonsson2 0 2 04+1
- 5Jarosław Hampel3 3 3 2 3 216+1
- 6Kamil Adamczewski0 11
- 7Adam Strzelec2 0 0 02
Heat by heat
- Damian Baliński · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2*
- Oleksandr Loktayev · ZIE1
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES3
- Adam Strzelec · ZIE2
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES1
- Kamil Adamczewski · ZIE0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Andreas Jonsson · ZIE2*
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LES0
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE3
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES2
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES1*
- Adam Strzelec · ZIE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · ZIE2
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE1*
- Mikkel Michelsen · LES0
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2*
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE1
- Andreas Jonsson · ZIE0
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2
- Damian Baliński · LES1*
- Adam Strzelec · ZIE0
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · ZIE2*
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES1
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Andreas Jonsson · ZIE2
- Damian Baliński · LES1
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE0
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES2
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES1*
- Adam Strzelec · ZIE0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · ZIE2*
- Damian Baliński · LES1
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2*
- Kamil Adamczewski · ZIE1
- Patryk Dudek · ZIE0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE2
- Nicki Pedersen · LES1
- Andreas Jonsson · ZIE0
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · ZIE2*
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES1
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES0
- Piotr Protasiewicz · ZIE3
- Jarosław Hampel · ZIE2*
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES1
- Nicki Pedersen · LESD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Temperature
- 14 → 11 °C
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Wind
- 13 km/h SW
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2.4 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 68 %
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 2 | 10 | −8 | +8 | |
| LES | ZIE | LES | ZIE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LES
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Baliński | 4 | 2.8 | 6 | +3.2 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 |
| Jarosław Hampel | 6 | 14.0 | 16 | +2.0 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 |
| Piotr Protasiewicz | 5 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Adam Strzelec | 4 | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Kamil Adamczewski | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Grzegorz Zengota | 4 | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 9.7 | 8 | -1.7 |
| Andreas Jonsson | 4 | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 |
| Patryk Dudek | 4 | 8.1 | 4 | -4.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.