OST vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Thursday, May 8, 2025 · Ostrów Stadium, Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Luke Becker3 3 3 1 212+1
- 10Sebastian Szostak3 0 0 W3
- 11Oliver Berntzon1 1 2 2 28+2
- 12Grzegorz Walasek1 3 3 3 313
- 13Frederik Jakobsen3 2 1 3 312
- 14Paweł Sitek3 2 38+1
- 15Filip Seniuk1 1 02+1
- 1Vaclav Milik0 3 2 1 06+1
- 2Patryk Wojdyło2 0 2 3 2 09
- 3Robert Chmiel2 2 0 2 1 18
- 4Mikkel AndersenW0
- 5Andreas Lyager0 0 1 12+1
- 6Olivier Buszkiewicz2 1 2 0 16
- 7Seweryn OrgackiU 11
- 8Mateusz Bartkowiak00
Heat by heat
- Luke Becker · OST3
- Robert Chmiel · LOD2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Vaclav Milik · LOD0
- Paweł Sitek · OST3
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · LOD2
- Filip Seniuk · OST1
- Seweryn Orgacki · LODU
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Patryk Wojdyło · LOD2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Andreas Lyager · LOD0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Paweł Sitek · OST2*
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · LOD1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Robert Chmiel · LOD2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Andreas Lyager · LOD0
- Vaclav Milik · LOD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Filip Seniuk · OST1*
- Patryk Wojdyło · LOD0
- Luke Becker · OST3
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · LOD2
- Andreas Lyager · LOD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Paweł Sitek · OST3
- Vaclav Milik · LOD2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Robert Chmiel · LOD0
- Luke Becker · OST3
- Patryk Wojdyło · LOD2
- Vaclav Milik · LOD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Andreas Lyager · LOD1
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Robert Chmiel · LOD2
- Luke Becker · OST1
- Vaclav Milik · LOD0
- Patryk Wojdyło · LOD3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Seweryn Orgacki · LOD1
- Filip Seniuk · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Patryk Wojdyło · LOD2
- Robert Chmiel · LOD1
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · LOD1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Luke Becker · OST2*
- Robert Chmiel · LOD1
- Patryk Wojdyło · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 11 → 8 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h NE
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 51 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| OST | LOD | OST | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +12 | 97 % |
| 6 | +12 | 99 % |
| 7 | +12 | 99 % |
| 8 | +14 | 100 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +18 | 100 % |
| 11 | +20 | 100 % |
| 12 | +18 | 100 % |
| 13 | +18 | 100 % |
| 14 | +22 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 5.3 | 13 | +7.7 |
| Paweł Sitek | 3 | 4.0 | 8 | +4.0 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 9.8 | 12 | +2.2 |
| Olivier Buszkiewicz | 5 | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 10.8 | 12 | +1.2 |
| Robert Chmiel | 6 | 7.8 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Seweryn Orgacki | 2 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 6 | 9.6 | 9 | -0.6 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 9.3 | 8 | -1.3 |
| Filip Seniuk | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Mikkel Andersen | 1 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Andreas Lyager | 4 | 9.2 | 2 | -7.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.