OST vs TAR
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, August 2, 2025 · Ostrów Stadium, Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Norbert Krakowiak2 2 1 16+2
- 10Frederik Jakobsen1 3 2 2 210+2
- 11Sebastian Szostak1 3 3 310+1
- 12Grzegorz Walasek0 00
- 13Oliver Berntzon3 2 3 08
- 14Paweł Sitek1 2 2 38+1
- 15Filip Seniuk3 0 2 05+1
- 16Anders Rowe2 0 35+1
- 1Mateusz Szczepaniak3 3 3 3 3 116
- 2Marko Levishyn2 1 0 2 D 05+1
- 3Timo Lahti0 2 1 1 26
- 5Fraser Bowes1 D 0 12+2
- 6Radosław Kowalski0 3 1 0 15+1
- 7Jan Heleniak2 0 1 14
Heat by heat
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · TAR3
- Norbert Krakowiak · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Timo Lahti · TAR0
- Filip Seniuk · OST3
- Jan Heleniak · TAR2
- Paweł Sitek · OST1
- Radosław Kowalski · TAR0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Marko Levishyn · TAR2
- Fraser Bowes · TAR1*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Radosław Kowalski · TAR3
- Paweł Sitek · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Jan Heleniak · TAR0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Timo Lahti · TAR2
- Radosław Kowalski · TAR1*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · TAR3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Marko Levishyn · TAR1
- Filip Seniuk · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Norbert Krakowiak · OST2*
- Jan Heleniak · TAR1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Paweł Sitek · OST2*
- Timo Lahti · TAR1
- Radosław Kowalski · TAR0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · TAR3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Norbert Krakowiak · OST1*
- Marko Levishyn · TAR0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Anders Rowe · OST2*
- Radosław Kowalski · TAR1
- Fraser Bowes · TAR0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · TAR3
- Marko Levishyn · TAR2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · OST1
- Anders Rowe · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Filip Seniuk · OST2*
- Jan Heleniak · TAR1
- Marko Levishyn · TARD
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · TAR3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Timo Lahti · TAR1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Paweł Sitek · OST3
- Timo Lahti · TAR2
- Fraser Bowes · TAR1*
- Filip Seniuk · OST0
- Anders Rowe · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2*
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · TAR1
- Marko Levishyn · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 22 → 24 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h SW
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 51 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| OST | TAR | OST | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 6 | 9.1 | 16 | +6.9 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 |
| Paweł Sitek | 4 | 6.6 | 8 | +1.4 |
| Filip Seniuk | 4 | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Jan Heleniak | 4 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Anders Rowe | 3 | 4.4 | 5 | +0.6 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 4 | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| Radosław Kowalski | 5 | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 |
| Fraser Bowes | 4 | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 2 | 3.1 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Marko Levishyn | 6 | 8.6 | 5 | -3.6 |
| Timo Lahti | 5 | 10.5 | 6 | -4.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.