OST vs BYD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 16, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder3 1 3 1 19+1
- 10Tobiasz Musielak3 2 2 2 09+1
- 11Wiktor Jasinski1 0 1 24+1
- 12Frederik Jakobsen1 3 2 3 312+1
- 13Gleb Chugunov2 3 3 1 312+1
- 14Tobiasz Potasznik0 2 02+1
- 15Sebastian Szostak3 0 03
- 1Kai Huckenbeck2 1 2 1 2 19+2
- 2Tim Sörensen0 1 0 3 0 26+1
- 3Mateusz Szczepaniak0 2 02
- 4Andreas Lyager1 1 02+1
- 5Krzysztof Buczkowski3 2 3 3 3 216
- 6Franciszek Karczewski1 0 01+1
- 7Olivier Buszkiewicz2 0 13
Heat by heat
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD2
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD1*
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Tim Sörensen · BYD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST2*
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD1*
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD2
- Tim Sörensen · BYD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Chris Holder · OST1*
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD2
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1*
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD1
- Tim Sörensen · BYD0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Andreas Lyager · BYD0
- Tim Sörensen · BYD3
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST2
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1*
- Tim Sörensen · BYD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Tim Sörensen · BYD2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD1*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 19 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h E
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 6.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 65 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| OST | BYD | OST | BYD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 6 | 11.8 | 16 | +4.2 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 7.9 | 12 | +4.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 9.1 | 12 | +2.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.3 | 9 | +0.7 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 4 | 3.4 | 4 | +0.6 |
| Olivier Buszkiewicz | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Tobiasz Potasznik | 3 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 6 | 9.9 | 9 | -0.9 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 3 | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
| Tim Sörensen | 6 | 9.3 | 6 | -3.3 |
| Andreas Lyager | 3 | 5.5 | 2 | -3.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.