OST vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Friday, June 7, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder2 2 1 2 310+2
- 10Wiktor Jasinski1 1 02+2
- 11Tobiasz Musielak3 1 1 2 18+2
- 12Frederik Jakobsen1 2 2 3 210+1
- 13Gleb Chugunov3 3 2 3 314
- 14Sebastian Szostak1 2 0 03
- 15Tobiasz Potasznik0 0 00
- 1Luke Becker0 1 3 1 27+1
- 2Benjamin Basso0 2 2 3 07+1
- 3Tomasz Gapiński1 3 3 1 08+1
- 4Daniel Kaczmarek0 0 1 01
- 5Oliver Berntzon2 3 3 2 111
- 6Mateusz Bartkowiak2 3 05+1
- 7Bartosz Nowak3 0 14
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1
- Luke Becker · LOD0
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Benjamin Basso · LOD2
- Luke Becker · LOD1*
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD0
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Benjamin Basso · LOD2*
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Benjamin Basso · LOD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD1
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2*
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD1
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 18 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h NW
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 5.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 62 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| OST | LOD | OST | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | -2 | 33 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 8.5 | 14 | +5.5 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 3 | 2.5 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 8.6 | 10 | +1.4 |
| Bartosz Nowak | 3 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| Benjamin Basso | 5 | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 10.5 | 10 | -0.5 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 8.1 | 7 | -1.1 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 3 | 3.1 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Tobiasz Potasznik | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 4 | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.