OST vs RZE
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Friday, May 10, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder2 2 1 3 0 210+1
- 11Wiktor JasinskiW 1 12+1
- 12Frederik Jakobsen2 2 1 2 1 311+2
- 13Gleb Chugunov3 1 3 3 3 316
- 14Gracjan Szostak0 11
- 15Sebastian Szostak3 2 W 1 0 17+1
- 16Tobiasz Potasznik00
- 1Marcin Nowak1 2 2 2 29+1
- 2Krystian Pieszczek0 3 U 2 05+1
- 3Jacob Thorssell3 3 2 1 09+1
- 4Jesper KnudsenT 0 D0
- 5Nicki Pedersen1 3 3 2 110
- 6Jakub Poczta1 1 02+1
- 7Wiktor Rafalski2 3 0 38
- 8Anze Grmek00
Heat by heat
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Marcin Nowak · RZE1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE2
- Jakub Poczta · RZE1*
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2*
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE1
- Krystian Pieszczek · RZE0
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Jakub Poczta · RZE1
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Jesper Knudsen · RZE0
- Krystian Pieszczek · RZE3
- Marcin Nowak · RZE2*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE2
- Gracjan Szostak · OST1
- Anze Grmek · RZE0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Marcin Nowak · RZE2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Krystian Pieszczek · RZEU
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Jakub Poczta · RZE0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Marcin Nowak · RZE2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Jesper Knudsen · RZED
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE3
- Krystian Pieszczek · RZE2*
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE2
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE1*
- Chris Holder · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Marcin Nowak · RZE2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Krystian Pieszczek · RZE0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE1
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 15 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h NW
- gusts up to 13 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 66 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| OST | RZE | OST | RZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | -4 | 33 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | 0 | 56 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | -2 | 33 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleb Chugunov | 6 | 10.3 | 16 | +5.7 |
| Wiktor Rafalski | 4 | 3.8 | 8 | +4.2 |
| Marcin Nowak | 5 | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 6 | 10.4 | 11 | +0.6 |
| Jacob Thorssell | 5 | 8.9 | 9 | +0.1 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.3 | 10 | -0.3 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Anze Grmek | 1 | 0.8 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Chris Holder | 6 | 11.1 | 10 | -1.1 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 3 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 6 | 8.4 | 7 | -1.4 |
| Jesper Knudsen | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Tobiasz Potasznik | 1 | 1.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Krystian Pieszczek | 5 | 7.8 | 5 | -2.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.