OST vs GDA
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 21, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder2 3 3 1 312+1
- 10Wiktor Jasinski2 1 0 03+1
- 11Tobiasz Musielak3 2 1 3 09+1
- 12Frederik Jakobsen2 3 3 3 011+1
- 13Gleb Chugunov3 1 3 2 312
- 14Sebastian Szostak2 3 27+1
- 15Gracjan Szostak3 0 03
- 1Niels Kristian Iversen0 2 2 2 17+2
- 2Mateusz Tonder0 3 1 2 28+1
- 3Nicolai Klindt1 1 1 3 28
- 4Tom Brennan0 0 00
- 5Krzysztof Kasprzak1 2 2 1 17+1
- 6Eryk KaminskiT 00
- 7Miłosz WysockiM 1 0 0 12+1
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GDA0
- Gracjan Szostak · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2*
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GDA1
- Mateusz Tonder · GDA0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST2*
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA1
- Eryk Kaminski · GDA0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Tom Brennan · GDA0
- Mateusz Tonder · GDA3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GDA2*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GDA2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Tom Brennan · GDA0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GDA2
- Mateusz Tonder · GDA1*
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GDA2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GDA2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Tom Brennan · GDA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Mateusz Tonder · GDA2
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA1*
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GDA1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA2
- Krzysztof Kasprzak · GDA1*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Mateusz Tonder · GDA2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · GDA1*
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 5 → 6 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 18 km/h N
- gusts up to 32 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 69 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 20 | 3 | +17 | −17 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| OST | GDA | OST | GDA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +9 | – |
| 3 | +13 | – |
| 4 | +17 | 100 % |
| 5 | +21 | 100 % |
| 6 | +17 | 99 % |
| 7 | +19 | 100 % |
| 8 | +23 | 100 % |
| 9 | +23 | 100 % |
| 10 | +25 | 100 % |
| 11 | +27 | 100 % |
| 12 | +27 | 100 % |
| 13 | +25 | 100 % |
| 14 | +25 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.9 | 7 | +3.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 8.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 9.2 | 12 | +2.8 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Mateusz Tonder | 5 | 6.3 | 8 | +1.7 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 7.8 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| Krzysztof Kasprzak | 5 | 8.0 | 7 | -1.0 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 5 | 8.4 | 7 | -1.4 |
| Miłosz Wysocki | 5 | 3.7 | 2 | -1.7 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 4 | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
| Eryk Kaminski | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Tom Brennan | 3 | 4.1 | 0 | -4.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.