OST vs BYD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 8, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder2 2 2 1 310+1
- 10Tobiasz Musielak1 1 3 0 16+2
- 11Wiktor Jasinski0 0 1 23
- 12Frederik Jakobsen3 3 3 0 312
- 13Gleb Chugunov1 3 2 3 09
- 14Tobiasz Potasznik3 2 U5
- 15Gracjan Szostak2 1 03+1
- 1Kai Huckenbeck3 0 1 3 29
- 2Tim Sörensen0 2 D2
- 3Andreas Lyager1 2 3 3 1 212+1
- 4Mateusz Szczepaniak3 1 1 2 07+2
- 5Krzysztof Buczkowski2 3 2 2 110+1
- 6Franciszek Karczewski1 0 01
- 7Olivier Buszkiewicz0 0 11
Heat by heat
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST3
- Gracjan Szostak · OST2*
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD1
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Tim Sörensen · BYD0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD3
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1*
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Tim Sörensen · BYD2
- Gracjan Szostak · OST1
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD0
- Andreas Lyager · BYD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OSTU
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD1
- Tim Sörensen · BYDD
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD0
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD2*
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST0
- Andreas Lyager · BYD3
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST2
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD1*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h SE
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 41 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| OST | BYD | OST | BYD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 7.4 | 12 | +4.6 |
| Tobiasz Potasznik | 3 | 2.6 | 5 | +2.4 |
| Andreas Lyager | 6 | 10.2 | 12 | +1.8 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 3 | 1.9 | 3 | +1.1 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 5 | 8.2 | 9 | +0.8 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 7.7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 4 | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 3 | 3.1 | 1 | -2.1 |
| Tim Sörensen | 3 | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.2 | 6 | -2.2 |
| Olivier Buszkiewicz | 3 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.