BYD vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 1, 2024 · Stadion Miejski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Bydgoszcz
Results
- 9Kai Huckenbeck3 1 3 2 09+2
- 10Andreas Lyager3 2 1 2 311+1
- 11Mateusz Szczepaniak0 1 2 36
- 12Tim Sörensen0 3 1 3 18+1
- 13Krzysztof Buczkowski3 2 2 3 313
- 14Olivier Buszkiewicz3 1 04
- 15Franciszek Karczewski2 0 13+1
- 1Chris Holder2 1 2 1 17+1
- 2Tobiasz Musielak1 3 0 2 06+1
- 3Wiktor Jasinski1 2 1 04+1
- 4Frederik Jakobsen2 0 3 0 27
- 5Gleb Chugunov2 3 3 1 211
- 6Sebastian Szostak1 0 0 01
- 7Gracjan Szostak0 00
Heat by heat
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD0
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD3
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Tim Sörensen · BYD0
- Andreas Lyager · BYD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tim Sörensen · BYD3
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD0
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD2
- Tim Sörensen · BYD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tim Sörensen · BYD3
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD2*
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Andreas Lyager · BYD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Tim Sörensen · BYD1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Chris Holder · OST1*
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 24 → 21 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 7 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 35 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| BYD | OST | BYD | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BYD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | +4.3 |
| Andreas Lyager | 5 | 7.3 | 11 | +3.7 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 5 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 9.6 | 11 | +1.4 |
| Olivier Buszkiewicz | 3 | 2.7 | 4 | +1.3 |
| Tim Sörensen | 5 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 3 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 4 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 4 | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | -1.6 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.0 | 6 | -3.0 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 10.3 | 7 | -3.3 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 5.8 | 1 | -4.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.