OST vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 25, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder2 3 1 3 312+1
- 10Tobiasz Musielak3 1 2 2 19+1
- 11Wiktor Jasinski0 3 1 3 07+1
- 12Frederik Jakobsen2 1 2 16
- 13Gleb ChugunovW 2 1 36+1
- 14Tobiasz Potasznik1 0 01
- 15Sebastian Szostak3 3 2 210+1
- 1Luke Becker1 1 3 2 29
- 2Benjamin Basso3 0 0 03
- 3Oskar Polis3 0 3 0 17
- 4Tomasz Gapiński1 2 2 0 38+2
- 5Oliver Berntzon1 2 3 1 07
- 6Mateusz Bartkowiak2 2 04
- 7Bartosz Nowak0 0 11
Heat by heat
- Oskar Polis · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD2
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST1
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD0
- Benjamin Basso · LOD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD2
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1*
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Oskar Polis · LOD0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2*
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD0
- Oskar Polis · LOD3
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD2*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Chris Holder · OST1*
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD0
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD1
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD1
- Oskar Polis · LOD0
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Oskar Polis · LOD1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 25 → 23 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h W
- gusts up to 32 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 57 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| OST | LOD | OST | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 6.2 | 10 | +3.8 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 9.7 | 12 | +2.3 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 5 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Oskar Polis | 5 | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.9 | 9 | +0.1 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Bartosz Nowak | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Tobiasz Potasznik | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Benjamin Basso | 4 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 4 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 4 | 7.9 | 6 | -1.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.