LOD vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 18, 2024 · Moto Arena w Łodzi, Łódź
Results
- 9Luke Becker3 2 3 3 112
- 10Daniel Kaczmarek0 0 00
- 11Tomasz Gapiński1 3 3 2 09
- 12Benjamin Basso0 2 0 0 02+1
- 13Oliver Berntzon3 3 2 1 211
- 14Bartosz Nowak2 2 04+1
- 15Mateusz Bartkowiak3 0 1 04+1
- 1Chris Holder2 2 3 2 2 213+1
- 2Tobiasz Musielak1 1 1 3 39+3
- 3Wiktor JasinskiD 00
- 4Frederik Jakobsen3 1 1 16+1
- 5Gleb Chugunov2 1 1 3 310+1
- 6Sebastian Szostak1 1 3 2 2 110+1
- 7Gracjan Szostak0 00
Heat by heat
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OSTD
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD3
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD3
- Benjamin Basso · LOD2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1*
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD1*
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Thunderstorm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 → 25 °C
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h E
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 68 %
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| LOD | OST | LOD | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LOD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | -2 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 5.5 | 9 | +3.5 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | +2.5 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Bartosz Nowak | 3 | 2.3 | 4 | +1.7 |
| Chris Holder | 6 | 11.6 | 13 | +1.4 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 4 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 10.2 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 4 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 2.9 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Benjamin Basso | 5 | 6.2 | 2 | -4.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.