POZ vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 4, 2024 · Stadion Golęcin, Poznań
Results
- 9Matias Nielsen3 2 3 0 3 112
- 10Mateusz Świdnicki0 1 01+1
- 11Szymon Szlauderbach2 1 1 2 17+2
- 12Oleksandr Loktayev3 W W 2 27
- 13Ryan Douglas2 2 3 1 08+1
- 14Lech Chlebowski1 1 02+1
- 15Kacper Teska2 0 13+1
- 1Chris Holder0 1 1 13+1
- 2Tobiasz Musielak1 3 2 3 211+1
- 3Wiktor Jasinski1 2 1 04+2
- 4Frederik Jakobsen3 3 2 3 T11
- 5Gleb Chugunov0 3 3 2 311
- 6Sebastian Szostak3 2 2 0 310+2
- 7Gracjan Szostak0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2*
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Chris Holder · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Kacper Teska · POZ2
- Lech Chlebowski · POZ1*
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Gleb Chugunov · OST0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Lech Chlebowski · POZ1
- Mateusz Świdnicki · POZ0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST2*
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · POZ2
- Mateusz Świdnicki · POZ1*
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1*
- Lech Chlebowski · POZ0
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Chris Holder · OST1*
- Mateusz Świdnicki · POZ0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ1
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Matias Nielsen · POZ0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2
- Kacper Teska · POZ1*
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Ryan Douglas · POZ1
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Matias Nielsen · POZ1
- Ryan Douglas · POZ0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle → Showers
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 22 °C
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h NW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.1 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 69 %
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| POZ | OST | POZ | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead POZ
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -6 | 15 % |
| 11 | -8 | 8 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -6 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 5 | 6.0 | 10 | +4.0 |
| Matias Nielsen | 6 | 8.6 | 12 | +3.4 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 4 | 8.5 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.4 | 11 | +1.6 |
| Szymon Szlauderbach | 5 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Kacper Teska | 3 | 1.9 | 3 | +1.1 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 10.9 | 11 | +0.1 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 4 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Lech Chlebowski | 3 | 2.3 | 2 | -0.3 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 3 | 2.6 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 3 | 2.9 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| Chris Holder | 4 | 8.9 | 3 | -5.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.