LOD vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 14, 2024 · Moto Arena w Łodzi, Łódź
Results
- 9Luke Becker2 3 2 3 2 012
- 10Daniel KaczmarekD 2 02+1
- 11Tomasz Gapiński0 W 1 2 14+1
- 12Benjamin Basso0 1 01
- 13Oliver Berntzon1 2 2 3 1 211
- 14Bartosz Nowak3 1 04
- 15Mateusz Bartkowiak2 0 3 05+1
- 1Chris Holder3 1 3 2 110
- 2Tobiasz Musielak3 3 1 1 311
- 3Wiktor Jasinski1 3 3 W7
- 4Frederik Jakobsen3 2 1 1 29+3
- 5Gleb Chugunov2 1 2 3 311+1
- 6Sebastian Szostak1 2 03+1
- 7Gracjan Szostak0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD0
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD3
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2*
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD1
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LODD
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2*
- Benjamin Basso · LOD1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD2*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Bartosz Nowak · LOD0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LOD0
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD3
- Gleb Chugunov · OST2
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Benjamin Basso · LOD0
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD3
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Gracjan Szostak · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD1
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · LOD2
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Luke Becker · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 26 → 23 °C
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h E
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 55 %
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| LOD | OST | LOD | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LOD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -10 | 9 % |
| 6 | -12 | 7 % |
| 7 | -8 | 13 % |
| 8 | -10 | 7 % |
| 9 | -12 | 1 % |
| 10 | -10 | 7 % |
| 11 | -10 | 1 % |
| 12 | -6 | 6 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -10 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiktor Jasinski | 4 | 3.5 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Luke Becker | 6 | 8.9 | 12 | +3.1 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Bartosz Nowak | 3 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 4 | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 6 | 10.1 | 11 | +0.9 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 10.9 | 11 | +0.1 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 10.6 | 9 | -1.6 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| Gracjan Szostak | 3 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Benjamin Basso | 3 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.