OST vs ZIE
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 11, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Grzegorz Walasek3 1 1 05+1
- 10Matias Nielsen0 2 02
- 12Oliver Berntzon2 0 2 3 2 211+1
- 13Tobiasz Musielak3 1 2 W W6
- 14Sebastian Szostak0 1 0 01
- 15Jakub Krawczyk1 0 12+1
- 16Francis Gusts2 1 1 2 17+2
- 1Przemysław Pawlicki0 2 3 2 29+2
- 2Luke Becker0 3 2 3 19+1
- 3Rasmus Jensen1 3 3 W 310
- 4Rohan Tungate3 2 1 17+2
- 5Krzysztof Buczkowski1 3 3 3 313
- 6Michał Curzytek3 2 05+1
- 7Maksym Borowiak2 0 02+1
Heat by heat
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Francis Gusts · OST2*
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE0
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE3
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE2*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1
- Luke Becker · ZIE0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Francis Gusts · OST1*
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE1*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Francis Gusts · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2*
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Luke Becker · ZIE1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 23 km/h NE
- gusts up to 37 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 26 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 5 | 13 | −8 | +8 | |
| 8–10 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 9 | −1 | +1 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| OST | ZIE | OST | ZIE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -8 | 18 % |
| 7 | -8 | 13 % |
| 8 | -10 | 7 % |
| 9 | -14 | 3 % |
| 10 | -14 | 0 % |
| 11 | -14 | 2 % |
| 12 | -14 | 4 % |
| 13 | -15 | 0 % |
| 14 | -19 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Berntzon | 6 | 7.6 | 11 | +3.4 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 10.1 | 13 | +2.9 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 6.2 | 9 | +2.8 |
| Michał Curzytek | 3 | 2.8 | 5 | +2.2 |
| Francis Gusts | 5 | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 4 | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 |
| Rohan Tungate | 4 | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Maksym Borowiak | 3 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Matias Nielsen | 3 | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 12.1 | 9 | -3.1 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.4 | 6 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.