POZ vs GDA
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 28, 2023 · Stadion Golęcin, Poznań
Results
- 9Kevin Fajfer2 3 0 0 05+1
- 10Adrian Gała22
- 11Antonio Lindbäck3 0 14+1
- 12Norbert Krakowiak2 3 2 3 313+1
- 13Oleksandr Loktayev3 3 2 3 112
- 14Kacper Teska2 0 02
- 15Kacper Mateusz Grzelak0 0 00
- 16Jonas Seifert-Salk2 3 2 2 211+2
- 1Mads Hansen0 2 2 26
- 2Norbert Kościuch1 12+1
- 3Michael Jepsen Jensen1 2 1 04
- 4Daniel Kaczmarek3 1 3 1 1 09+2
- 5Nicolai Klindt0 1 3 15
- 6Miłosz Wysocki3 1 0 15
- 7Seweryn Orgacki1 01
- 8Keynan Rew1 3 3 29+1
Heat by heat
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ3
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ2*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA1
- Mads Hansen · GDA0
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA3
- Kacper Teska · POZ2
- Seweryn Orgacki · GDA1
- Kacper Mateusz Grzelak · POZ0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ2*
- Norbert Kościuch · GDA1
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA0
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA3
- Adrian Gała · POZ2
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA1
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA1*
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Mads Hansen · GDA2
- Norbert Kościuch · GDA1*
- Kacper Mateusz Grzelak · POZ0
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Seweryn Orgacki · GDA0
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA1
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ3
- Mads Hansen · GDA2
- Keynan Rew · GDA1*
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA3
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ2
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ1*
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ3
- Mads Hansen · GDA2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA1*
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Keynan Rew · GDA3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA1
- Kacper Mateusz Grzelak · POZ0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA0
- Keynan Rew · GDA3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA1
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ3
- Keynan Rew · GDA2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 21 → 22 °C
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h E
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 25 %
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| POZ | GDA | POZ | GDA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead POZ
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norbert Krakowiak | 5 | 7.8 | 13 | +5.2 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 |
| Jonas Seifert-Salk | 5 | 9.0 | 11 | +2.0 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 6 | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Miłosz Wysocki | 4 | 3.6 | 5 | +1.4 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 10.8 | 12 | +1.2 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | +0.4 |
| Adrian Gała | 1 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Seweryn Orgacki | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Antonio Lindbäck | 3 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 |
| Kevin Fajfer | 5 | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 |
| Kacper Teska | 3 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Mads Hansen | 4 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 4 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 4 | 8.1 | 4 | -4.1 |
| Kacper Mateusz Grzelak | 3 | 4.2 | 0 | -4.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.