OST vs BYD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, July 1, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak3 0 1 3 310
- 10Victor Palovaara1 01
- 11Grzegorz Walasek2 1 0 D3+2
- 12Matias Nielsen2 2 2 1 29+1
- 13Oliver Berntzon3 2 2 3 313+1
- 14Jakub KrawczykW 3 2 3 311
- 15Sebastian Szostak3 0 1 04
- 1Kenneth Bjerre1 1 2 0 15+1
- 2Szymon Szlauderbach0 3 03
- 3Mateusz Szczepaniak0 3 1 1 W5+1
- 4David BellegoW0
- 5Andreas Lyager1 3 1 2 2 W9
- 6Wiktor Przyjemski2 2 1 3 3 T11
- 7Olivier Buszkiewicz1 2 25+1
- 8Benjamin Basso0 00
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Kenneth Bjerre · BYD1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Wiktor Przyjemski · BYD2
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1
- Szymon Szlauderbach · BYD0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Wiktor Przyjemski · BYD2
- Victor Palovaara · OST1
- Benjamin Basso · BYD0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Benjamin Basso · BYD0
- Szymon Szlauderbach · BYD3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Kenneth Bjerre · BYD1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Andreas Lyager · BYD3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Wiktor Przyjemski · BYD1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Kenneth Bjerre · BYD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Szymon Szlauderbach · BYD0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · BYD3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Kenneth Bjerre · BYD0
- Wiktor Przyjemski · BYD3
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OSTD
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1*
- Victor Palovaara · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD2
- Kenneth Bjerre · BYD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 23 → 22 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 9 km/h SW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 10.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 69 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 3 | +5 | −5 | |
| OST | BYD | OST | BYD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 4.9 | 11 | +6.1 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | +4.3 |
| Olivier Buszkiewicz | 3 | 2.3 | 5 | +2.7 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Wiktor Przyjemski | 5 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| Szymon Szlauderbach | 3 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 10.6 | 10 | -0.6 |
| Victor Palovaara | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| David Bellego | 1 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Andreas Lyager | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | -1.9 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 7.0 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Benjamin Basso | 2 | 2.8 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 4 | 6.2 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 5 | 8.2 | 5 | -3.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.