ZIE vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 2, 2023 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Przemysław PawlickiD W 1 3 37+1
- 10Rasmus Jensen3 2 2 3 212+1
- 11Rohan Tungate1 3 3 3 313
- 12Viktor Trofymov1 1 1 14
- 13Krzysztof Buczkowski3 3 3 2 213+2
- 14Maksym Borowiak3 0 25+1
- 15Michał Curzytek0 0 00
- 1Tobiasz Musielak2 2 3 2 W9+1
- 2Victor Palovaara0 00
- 3Grzegorz Walasek3 2 U 1 W6+1
- 4Matias Nielsen2 0 1 03
- 5Oliver Berntzon2 3 2 1 19
- 6Sebastian Szostak1 1 0 02+2
- 7Jakub Krawczyk2 1 1 2 17+1
Heat by heat
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIED
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Viktor Trofymov · ZIE1
- Victor Palovaara · OST0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Viktor Trofymov · ZIE1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OSTU
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE1*
- Victor Palovaara · OST0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Viktor Trofymov · ZIE1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Viktor Trofymov · ZIE1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OSTW
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 21 → 22 °C
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Wind
- 26 km/h SW
- gusts up to 43 km/h
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.7 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 47 %
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 10 | 2 | +8 | −8 | |
| ZIE | OST | ZIE | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rohan Tungate | 5 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| Maksym Borowiak | 3 | 2.5 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 10.7 | 13 | +2.3 |
| Viktor Trofymov | 4 | 2.7 | 4 | +1.3 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.8 | 9 | +0.2 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Victor Palovaara | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Michał Curzytek | 3 | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Matias Nielsen | 4 | 6.8 | 3 | -3.8 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 12.0 | 7 | -5.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.