POZ vs RYB

Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 7, 2023 · Stadion Golęcin, Poznań

Results

POZ 46 : 44 RYB

POZ

9Oleksandr Loktayev3 2 3 2 3 215+1
10Antonio Lindbäck3 1 1 05+1
11Norbert KrakowiakU 3 2 27
12Adrian GałaW0
13Jonas Seifert-Salk1 2 2 2 2 312+1
14Kacper Teska1 1 0 13
15Karol Żupiński3 0 14+1
16Emil Breum Ankersen0 U0

RYB

1Patryk Wojdyło2 1 2 3 19
2Matej Zagar3 3 D 3 110
3Brady Kurtz1 1 3 1 06+1
5Patrick Hansen2 3 3 3 011+1
6Kacper Tkocz0 M 11
7Paweł Trześniewski2 0 02
8Jan Kvech2 2 1 D5

Heat by heat

Heat 166.16 s3:3

Heat 267.60 s4:2

Heat 366.32 s1:5

Heat 466.29 s4:2

Antonio Lindbäck · POZ3
Jan Kvech · RYB2
Kacper Teska · POZ1
Kacper Tkocz · RYBM

Heat 566.63 s3:3

Heat 666.17 s2:4

Heat 765.88 s3:3

Heat 866.10 s2:4

Brady Kurtz · RYB3
Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
Jan Kvech · RYB1
Kacper Teska · POZ0

Heat 965.72 s4:2

Heat 1066.40 s2:4

Heat 1166.65 s3:3

Heat 1265.83 s3:3

Heat 1365.92 s2:4

Heat 1467.17 s5:1

Heat 1565.98 s5:1

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Cloudy; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Temperature: 12 → 13 °C; Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Wind: 20 km/h E; gusts up to 35 km/h; Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 5.4 mm; Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Humidity: 53 %; Measured · Poznan, 4 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	12	12	0	0
5–7	8	10	−2	+2
8–10	8	10	−2	+2
11–13	8	10	−2	+2
14–15	10	2	+8	−8
	POZ	RYB	POZ	RYB

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead POZ

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	0	66 %
2	+2	77 %
3	-2	47 %
4	0	62 %
5	0	64 %
6	-2	48 %
7	-2	46 %
8	-4	35 %
9	-2	44 %
10	-4	22 %
11	-4	18 %
12	-4	20 %
13	-6	4 %
14	-2	23 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Patrick Hansen	5	6.9	11	+4.1
Oleksandr Loktayev	6	11.2	15	+3.8
Patryk Wojdyło	5	6.0	9	+3.0
Jonas Seifert-Salk	6	9.5	12	+2.5
Karol Żupiński	3	2.1	4	+1.9
Matej Zagar	5	9.8	10	+0.2
Norbert Krakowiak	4	7.1	7	-0.1
Kacper Tkocz	3	1.6	1	-0.6
Paweł Trześniewski	3	3.1	2	-1.1
Adrian Gała	1	1.3	0	-1.3
Kacper Teska	4	4.6	3	-1.6
Jan Kvech	4	6.8	5	-1.8
Antonio Lindbäck	4	6.9	5	-1.9
Emil Breum Ankersen	2	2.4	0	-2.4
Brady Kurtz	5	10.5	6	-4.5

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 67.6065.72 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside 1 + 2 38.7:34.7 outside 3 + 4

Trend ◀ +0.63 towards the inside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source