OST vs POZ
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Thursday, May 4, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Oliver Berntzon3 1 1 2 18+3
- 10Grzegorz Walasek2 2 2 1 310
- 11Victor Palovaara1 01
- 12Matias Nielsen2 1 3 3 W9+1
- 13Tobiasz Musielak3 2 1 3 312
- 14Jakub Poczta0 1 01+1
- 15Jakub Krawczyk3 1 37+1
- 16Francis Gusts0 00
- 1Kevin Fajfer2 0 02
- 2Adrian Gała1 3 3 2 211
- 3Antonio Lindbäck1 2 2 0 27+3
- 4Norbert Krakowiak3 3 3 T W9
- 5Jonas Seifert-Salk0 3 2 2 07
- 6Karol Żupiński1 0 0 01+1
- 7Kacper Teska2 0 13+1
- 8Emil Breum Ankersen11
Heat by heat
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ2
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ1*
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Kacper Teska · POZ2
- Karol Żupiński · POZ1*
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Adrian Gała · POZ1
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ0
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Jakub Poczta · OST1*
- Karol Żupiński · POZ0
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ3
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Adrian Gała · POZ3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Norbert Krakowiak · POZ3
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Adrian Gała · POZ3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
- Victor Palovaara · OST1
- Karol Żupiński · POZ0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Emil Breum Ankersen · POZ1
- Karol Żupiński · POZ0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Adrian Gała · POZ2
- Kacper Teska · POZ1*
- Victor Palovaara · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Adrian Gała · POZ2
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 15 → 13 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h E
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 42 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 4 | +3 | −3 | |
| OST | POZ | OST | POZ | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | +2 | 73 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Gała | 5 | 6.6 | 11 | +4.4 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 4.2 | 7 | +2.8 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 4 | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 9.0 | 10 | +1.0 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 8.9 | 9 | +0.1 |
| Kacper Teska | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Emil Breum Ankersen | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Antonio Lindbäck | 5 | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 |
| Jonas Seifert-Salk | 5 | 8.0 | 7 | -1.0 |
| Karol Żupiński | 4 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Kevin Fajfer | 3 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 9.6 | 8 | -1.6 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Francis Gusts | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Victor Palovaara | 2 | 4.1 | 1 | -3.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.