ZIE vs RYB
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, October 8, 2023 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki3 1 1 2 18+1
- 10Rasmus Jensen3 3 3 2 314
- 11Rohan Tungate1 3 3 3 212+1
- 12Luke Becker1 0 1 35+1
- 13Krzysztof Buczkowski2 1 2 1 39+1
- 14Maksym Borowiak3 1 04
- 15Michał Curzytek2 3 16+1
- 1Matej Zagar0 0 3 2 16
- 2Kamil Winkler0 0 0 00
- 3Patryk Wojdyło2 2 1 2 1 08+1
- 5Brady Kurtz3 2 2 2 3 113
- 6Paweł TrześniewskiD 0 00
- 7Kacper Tkocz1 0 0 2 2 05
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE1
- Matej Zagar · RYB0
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2*
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB1
- Paweł Trześniewski · RYBD
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2
- Luke Becker · ZIE1*
- Kamil Winkler · RYB0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE1
- Paweł Trześniewski · RYB0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Brady Kurtz · RYB2
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB1*
- Luke Becker · ZIE0
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1
- Matej Zagar · RYB0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Brady Kurtz · RYB2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB0
- Matej Zagar · RYB3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB1
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Matej Zagar · RYB2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE1
- Kamil Winkler · RYB0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Brady Kurtz · RYB2
- Luke Becker · ZIE1
- Paweł Trześniewski · RYB0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2*
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB2
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE1
- Kamil Winkler · RYB0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1*
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE1
- Kamil Winkler · RYB0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Brady Kurtz · RYB1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 13 → 10 °C
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h W
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 11.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 59 %
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| ZIE | RYB | ZIE | RYB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +10 | 97 % |
| 7 | +12 | 99 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +18 | 100 % |
| 12 | +20 | 100 % |
| 13 | +20 | 100 % |
| 14 | +22 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rohan Tungate | 5 | 7.9 | 12 | +4.1 |
| Kacper Tkocz | 6 | 2.2 | 5 | +2.8 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 11.3 | 14 | +2.7 |
| Michał Curzytek | 3 | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 |
| Maksym Borowiak | 3 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Brady Kurtz | 6 | 13.1 | 13 | -0.1 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 9.2 | 9 | -0.2 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 6 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Paweł Trześniewski | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Kamil Winkler | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 11.5 | 8 | -3.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.