OST vs RYB
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 16, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Oliver Berntzon2 1 3 2 1 211+1
- 10Francis Gusts2 1 1 04+2
- 11Grzegorz Walasek3 2 2 3 2 W12
- 12Matias Nielsen3 1 2 1 0 29+2
- 14Jakub Krawczyk3 3 2 0 08
- 15Jakub PocztaW M 11
- 1Matej Zagar1 1 1 14
- 2Patryk Wojdyło0 3 3 2 2 111+1
- 3Brady Kurtz0 3 3 3 3 315
- 4Krystian Pieszczek1 01
- 5Patrick Hansen2 2 0 3 1 311
- 6Paweł Trześniewski2 0 02
- 7Kacper TkoczW D 00
Heat by heat
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Brady Kurtz · RYB0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Paweł Trześniewski · RYB2
- Jakub Poczta · OSTW
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Patrick Hansen · RYB2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Francis Gusts · OST2*
- Krystian Pieszczek · RYB1
- Paweł Trześniewski · RYB0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1*
- Krystian Pieszczek · RYB0
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Jakub Poczta · OSTM
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Patrick Hansen · RYB2
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYBD
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Francis Gusts · OST1*
- Patrick Hansen · RYB0
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Patrick Hansen · RYB3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1*
- Paweł Trześniewski · RYB0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2
- Jakub Poczta · OST1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Patrick Hansen · RYB1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Patrick Hansen · RYB3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 13 → 15 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h W
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 63 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 6 | +11 | −11 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| OST | RYB | OST | RYB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +5 | 89 % |
| 3 | +7 | 94 % |
| 4 | +11 | 96 % |
| 5 | +11 | 97 % |
| 6 | +9 | 97 % |
| 7 | +11 | 99 % |
| 8 | +11 | 98 % |
| 9 | +9 | 97 % |
| 10 | +9 | 96 % |
| 11 | +5 | 92 % |
| 12 | +7 | 98 % |
| 13 | +5 | 96 % |
| 14 | +3 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Kurtz | 6 | 11.6 | 15 | +3.4 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 6 | 7.8 | 11 | +3.2 |
| Patrick Hansen | 6 | 8.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 6 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 6 | 11.5 | 11 | -0.5 |
| Paweł Trześniewski | 3 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Matias Nielsen | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | -1.4 |
| Kacper Tkocz | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Francis Gusts | 4 | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 |
| Krystian Pieszczek | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Matej Zagar | 4 | 7.9 | 4 | -3.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.