ZIE vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 17, 2023 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki3 3 3 1 313
- 10Rasmus Jensen1 2 1 37+1
- 11Rohan Tungate0 0 3 25
- 12Luke Becker2 1 2 3 210+2
- 13Krzysztof Buczkowski1 3 2 06+1
- 14Maksym Borowiak3 3 1 29+1
- 15Michał Curzytek2 2 1 05+3
- 1Tobiasz Musielak2 W2
- 2Matias Nielsen0 1 2 2 3 19
- 3Grzegorz Walasek1 3 3 2 09+1
- 4Francis Gusts0 00
- 5Oliver Berntzon3 2 0 1 1 310+2
- 6Sebastian Szostak1 2 0 D 14
- 7Jakub Krawczyk0 1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE0
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1*
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Luke Becker · ZIE1
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OSTD
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 °C
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Wind
- 9 km/h S
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 46 %
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| ZIE | OST | ZIE | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +16 | 100 % |
| 11 | +18 | 100 % |
| 12 | +18 | 100 % |
| 13 | +18 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maksym Borowiak | 4 | 3.5 | 9 | +5.5 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 7.9 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 11.0 | 13 | +2.0 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Matias Nielsen | 6 | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 6 | 9.4 | 10 | +0.6 |
| Michał Curzytek | 4 | 4.4 | 5 | +0.6 |
| Rohan Tungate | 4 | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 4 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 5 | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | -1.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 2 | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Francis Gusts | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 4 | 4.5 | 1 | -3.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.