OST vs ZIE
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, September 9, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak1 3 1 05+1
- 10Francis Gusts3 2 0 2 07+1
- 11Grzegorz Walasek2 0 02
- 12Matias Nielsen1 1 3 1 17
- 13Oliver Berntzon3 2 3 W 19
- 14Jakub Krawczyk3 2 1 3 09+1
- 15Sebastian Szostak1 1 13+1
- 1Przemysław Pawlicki3 2 3 3 3 216+2
- 2Luke Becker2 0 2 2 2 311+2
- 3Rasmus Jensen0 3 2 3 311
- 4Rohan Tungate1 01
- 5Krzysztof Buczkowski0 1 2 W 25+1
- 6Michał Curzytek0 0 11+1
- 7Maksym Borowiak2 0 02
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1*
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE0
- Francis Gusts · OST3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2*
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE1
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Luke Becker · ZIE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Francis Gusts · OST2*
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE1*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Francis Gusts · OST2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 28 → 26 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h SE
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 40 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 10 | −3 | +3 | |
| 14–15 | 2 | 10 | −8 | +8 | |
| OST | ZIE | OST | ZIE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +3 | 91 % |
| 14 | -1 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 6 | 12.3 | 16 | +3.7 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 |
| Francis Gusts | 5 | 4.6 | 7 | +2.4 |
| Luke Becker | 6 | 9.3 | 11 | +1.7 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 9.7 | 11 | +1.3 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Maksym Borowiak | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 3 | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Michał Curzytek | 3 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Rohan Tungate | 2 | 3.6 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 7.7 | 5 | -2.7 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 9.9 | 5 | -4.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.