OST vs RYB
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, August 26, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak3 3 3 3 012
- 10Francis Gusts3 1 0 04
- 11Grzegorz Walasek0 3 3 3 312
- 12Matias Nielsen3 2 2 2 110+3
- 13Oliver Berntzon1 2 1 2 17
- 14Jakub Krawczyk1 D 01
- 15Sebastian Szostak3 0 14
- 1Brady Kurtz2 3 2 2 0 312+1
- 2Patryk Wojdyło2 1 1 1 2 29+2
- 3Matej Zagar1 1 3 1 28+1
- 5Patrick HansenU0
- 6Kacper Tkocz2 1 W 0 03
- 7Kamil Winkler0 00
- 8Jan Kvech2 0 2 1 38
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Brady Kurtz · RYB2
- Matej Zagar · RYB1*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Kamil Winkler · RYB0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Francis Gusts · OST3
- Jan Kvech · RYB2
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OSTD
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Jan Kvech · RYB0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Jan Kvech · RYB2
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Kamil Winkler · RYB0
- Matej Zagar · RYB3
- Brady Kurtz · RYB2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Brady Kurtz · RYB2
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB1*
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Jan Kvech · RYB1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB1
- Brady Kurtz · RYB0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB0
- Jan Kvech · RYB3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Matej Zagar · RYB1
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Matej Zagar · RYB2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Kacper Tkocz · RYB0
- Brady Kurtz · RYB3
- Patryk Wojdyło · RYB2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 → 26 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 18 km/h SW
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 51 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| OST | RYB | OST | RYB | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 9.3 | 12 | +2.7 |
| Kacper Tkocz | 5 | 1.6 | 3 | +1.4 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 10.8 | 12 | +1.2 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 6 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Matej Zagar | 5 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 6 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Jan Kvech | 5 | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Francis Gusts | 4 | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 |
| Patrick Hansen | 1 | 1.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Kamil Winkler | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.